GFCT Pragmatic Strategy – #GW13

Strategic View

Are you excited, folks? We are in that Festive FPL congestion time – Six GameWeeks in 3 weeks, right up to GW 17, and the blank and the double soon after. The fun times are about to begin – where is your transfer ticker? Where are your transfer plans? Get them ready if you haven’t already.

If we can give you one gentle tip during this time, a nominally-playing bench would be it. There would be rotation – especially because of the curtailed pre-season and the walking wounded in most teams. Those 1-point Coopers and 2-point Anguissas can be quite valuable in the long run, and if you take care of the small FPL decisions, the big decisions generally take care of themselves.

With that, let’s go forth with our normal three-question repartee. Like always.

  1. Let’s start about the team to think about for the next few: Spurs. Has to be. The tough fixtures have turned out to be not-tough-at-all, Jose is strutting and prancing about on the sidelines, and oh, this is so 2005 ! Kane assists to Son’s goal, and Son assists to Kane’s goal – and it is so utterly predictable. But, but, but… how about the famous trinity of KDB, Salah and Bruno? You tell me!
  2. Player: We mentioned that we are most intrigued about Bruno Fernandes in the last iteration of this note, and a lot of you purchased him – so much so, that he is properly ensconced as part of the holy trinity of FPL now. This week, we would ask you to turn your attention to Trent Alexander Arnold – last season, at around this time, he kicked into top gear, and left every other defender in his wake. What will happen now?
  3. The structural question to think about:How many premier players would you consider? Three? Four? Or Two? The sheer predictability of points for the big gins would make even the 4-premium structure a viable option perhaps- but 3 is the acceptable middle-ground. And with the 7-8.5 million players also being reasonably consistent (Greaish, Zaha, DCL, Ings), maybe 2 is enough?.

And to end the Strategic talk, here’s FPL 101 Bumper Sticker Quote ( #BSQ ) for the week:

Don’t Panic.

Tactical View

There are some interesting Template breakers –

  1. Defence: Reese James has gained ground to be in the team now, as predicted in the last note. Look carefully at Vestergaard of Southampton (understandably), and Dallas of Leeds (perhaps less so), who threaten to break the template.
  2. Midfield: Salah. He indeed is more highly owned than all midfielders except for Grealish, Son and Bruno, but due to untenable team structures, is not included. He will be back, as will be KDB, who also has higher ownership than JWP and Zaha, but is not int he team for the same reason. Ward-Prowse, last time’s template-breaker, is in the team now, as is Zaha after some sensational form. James Rodriguez (who is not scoring or assisting), and Jota (who is injured) miss out.
  3. Forwards: Vardy, due to the easy upcoming fixture run, and Wilson, due to some excellent form, are gaining teams. But the top three owned players, DCL (the highest owned player in the game), Kane, and Bamford, continue to be in a league of their own.

Operational View

Goalkeepers

Mendy (CHE) – Projected points from GW13-15 3.8 pts

Chelsea has conceded only 3 big chances since GW8 and have managed to keep 2 clean sheets while conceding only 3 goals. Chelsea are facing WOL, WHU and ARS next up who are overall not scoring alot recently and we expect Chelsea to deal with WHU’s set plays well too.

Martinez (AVL) – Projected points from GW13-15 3.8 pts

AVL have conceded only 7 big chances since GW8 and have managed to keep 2 clean sheets while conceding only 4 goals. AVL are facing BUR, WBA and CRY next, none of which pose a significant attacking threat. If AVL slow down from their xG as a team due to injuries then Martinez is very likely to be a part of the bonus points as well.

Defenders

Dias (MCI) – Projected points from GW13-15 4.0 ppg

City have been the best defence recently with consecutive clean sheets and Dias seems the most nailed option in that backline. They are facing WBA, SOU and NEW up next and we expect atleast 2 CS’s with those fixtures. Dias has had 2 shots on target and been a part of 2 BC’s recently and there is growing expectations of him getting a possible attacking return from a set piece soon.

James (CHE) Projected points from GW13-15 3.8 ppg

James now seems to have cemented his place in the starting 11 and at his price seems as the best way into the Chelsea defence. He is creating big chances and eye tests suggests an attacking return is around the corner as he hit the post in the last game. WOL, WHU and ARS as the next fixtures can definitely be defenses that James could thrive against and we feel he provides lots of value

Midfielders

Salah (LIV) – Projected points from GW13-15 7.2 ppg

Despite Liverpool’s poor form away from home this season, as a team they seem determined to win and Salah is the spearheading that attack. Despite missing games since GW8 he has had 3 big chances, 5 shots in the box and an xG of 2.29 and has scored 3 goals. He is a must have for his upcoming fixtures.

KDB (MCI) – Projected points from GW13-15 6.7 ppg

City have a great run of fixtures and while they have had a much better defensive performance their attacking returns has been erratic considering what we expect from them. KDB himself has been phenomenal since GW8 having been a part of 4 big chances, creating 7 big chances and 13 shots in the box. We expect him to be a popular Captain choice and he should definitely provide FPL returns.

Fernandes (MNU) – Projected points from GW13-15 5.4 ppg

Fernandes has been fantastic himself with being a part of 4 big chances and creating 6 big chances since GW8. He has being playing in the no. 10 position and has been a part of almost all MNU attacking moves having had 8 shots in the box since GW8. He pays SHU, LEE and LEI all three teams that have been very poor defensively and we expect him to remain a popular Captaincy option as well.

Forwards

Bamford (LEE) – Projected points from GW13-15 4.6 ppg

Since GW8 no other striker has had more shots in the box – 17. He’s been a part of 5 big chances but only scored twice. He faces NEW and BUR in the next three fixtures and we feel he should continue to get good chances and should be able to score against these defences.

Kane (TOT) – Projected points from GW13-15 4.9 ppg

Kane’s number have dropped significantly recently with only 8 shots in the box but he continues to create for his team mates and has still managed to score 3 goals since GW8. He faces LIV, LEI and WOL and we expect the Spurs attacking play on the counter should continue to help him be one of the most popular striker choices.

PUNTS

Punts for GW13 &14

Rajat Aggarwal – Maguire, Bowen, Ings
Shom Biswas – TBD
Chase Blocker – Wan-Bissaka, Lookman, Ings
Chris Turner – Stones, Benhrama, Decordova Reed
Martin Coley – Konsa, Cavaleiro, Maupay
Alden Morris – Telles, Cavaleiro, Welbeck
Gabriel Penaloza – Maguire, Rashford, Watkins
NiteshRay – Dias, Bowen, D Ings
Ajit Dhillon. – Dias, Mane, Watkins

I hope you all enjoyed this edition and you can expect this biweekly report going forward too.

Regards,

GFCT Team.

Shom Biswas

Ajit Dhillon

Gabriel Penaloza

Chase Blocker

Chris Turner

Martin Coleman

Nitesh Ray

Alden Morris

Rajat Aggarwal

Published by Ajit Dhillon

Living life to the fullest! A father to Ahaan and husband to Ayesha. Creator of the GFCT Project, Chats & Mini Leagues! A financial market participant by profession who absolutely loves sports! I'm a die hard Real Madrid Fan who loves playing Fantasy Football!

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