#FPLMatchups #GW13 – Spark Notes Version 1: The Chamber of Princes + Bonus Question

Diogo Jota’s injury has ignited much conversation about what to do with that roster spot. I thought this would be a good opportunity to unite the budget princes that could provide value in the upcoming GWs. These are just some quick snapshots, not an in-depth analysis.

  1. Bobby Decordova Reid (BDR)
  2. Said Benrahma
  3. Tomas Soucek
  4. Pascal Gross
  5. Eberechi Eze
  6. Ademola Lookman
  7. Ivan Ricardo Neves Abreu Cavaleiro
  1. BDR 5.3M/0.6% (last 2 GWs)

Eye: Looked like an important part of the game plan for FUL. Seemed to get in good spaces and cause problems, but didn’t have many chances.

Stats: xG 0.27, SIB 2, xGI Delta +0.89

Notes : 2 point merchant. Returns unpredictable.

  • Benrahma 6.0M/0.3% (last match)

Eye: Grew more and more into the creative hub of the team as the game progressed. Opposition had to react fast and hard to account for him. Almost scored from a low xG shot.

Stats: 100% dribble success rate (3/3), 6 shots

Notes: Creates space for others more than chances. Is not afraid to shoot and has a whip on him. Teams need to account for his dribbling with numbers; his presence should make the team’s attack better as a whole.

  • Soucek 5.0M/6.9%

Eye: He’s not only an aerial threat, he’s also a creative player that can link play and pick out through balls that set up the assist. Among the most important players to this WHU team.

Stats: He’ll provide good stats in good fixtures. CRY, BHA, SOU are 3 fixtures in the next 5 GWs where Soucek would be a recommendation. A spot starter.

Notes: He is probably at his ceiling right now.

  • Gross 5.8M/1.0%

Moved from the 10 to the 6. Avoid.

  • Eze 5.8M/1.0%

Eze is on set pieces and now on corners from both sides. He’s another player whose attacking role is increasing in his team. So the evolution of his involvement from GWs 1-8 on the left and 9-12 on the right. Shifting centrally and acquired corners from the right.

  • Lookman 5.0M/1.1%

Eye: Humility is a great teacher. Lookman seems a man transformed since his iconic penalty fail. Whereas he began the seasn stuck to the left side, Lookman has been moved around to the right as well and this is causing teams some difficulties.

Stats: 15 penalty area touches, 7 goal attempts, 4 SOT, and 2 BC have contributed to a very respectable xGI of 1.47 over the last 4 GWs.

Notes: FUL are flying at the moment. Looking good now but returns may be difficult to predict.

  • Cavaleiro 5.3M/0.1%

Eye: Cavaleiro knows he’s the best player on this team and shows it with successful selfishness. He has ignited FULs announcement that they do indeed exist, and it has already caught a couple teams by surprise.

Stats: Last 4 GWs 18 take-ons (12 successful), 19 dribbles (12 successful), 17 penalty area touches, 8 SIB, 8 SOT, and 5 BCs.

Notes: These stats stand out as the best in the bunch, but something inside me questions their sustainability/predictability.

Bonus Question

Thanks to @FPLCrypto for submitting this question on Twitter:

What are the top 3 stats you utilize to look for opportunity in matchups and FPL in general?

Because I remember how lost I was when I first started looking more closely at stats.

I would have to say the top 3 stats would be xGI, Big Chances, and Shots in the Box. I can determine xG and xA from xGI because of the type of player I know they are from watching games. BC are strong indicators of good quality opportunities, and SIB covers opportunities that may not be considered “Big” but are still good.

I will add, however, that I find the most insight in combinations of stats. SIB and SOT for example. Trezeguet led the league in SIB for several GWs but was among the bottom for SOT. The opportunity is irrelevant if the player can’t hit the target. BC/xG/xGDelta (and conceded) is another relationship I look at that can indicate form.

It’s a great question; thank you @FPLCrypto.

That’ll do it for #GW13. Thanks for your attention once again. I wish you all the best of luck this GW. Get dem greens!


Gabriel Penaloza

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