In this video we discuss FDR up till GW14. We discuss the different FPL draft formations which is followed up by our own current GW1 drafts and our thinking behind them.
This is the first of many GFCT videos that will be released with our fellow admin FPL Blocc, on whom’s youtube channel we will be posting our videos all through the season.
At GFCT we like being inclusive and we have done our first video with all the admins of the chats.
Going forward we will be asking the members our of league and GFCT chat to join us on the videos and help improve our overall game.
Please do enjoy the video and share it with your fellow FPL managers.
Please follow our blog by subscribing via the email option and never miss any of our research updates. Also, follow Chase on his youtube channel which is where all our GFCT Videos will be uploaded.
While I was working as a Trader I used to always write a proprietary report for trade ideas called, “Where are we placed?”. The idea was to first analyse where we stand currently and based on that and our forward assumptions (based on historical evidence and future event risks) try and envision the best possible outcomes in the various asset classes.
I have now decided to the do the same here in FPL and I will be publishing this report every 6 to 8 GW’s keeping the above process in mind. In case I can time it with a large fixture swing or Wildcard deadline then I might do that as well.
It was a great summer with the Euro’s and while Covid hasn’t been completely eradicated we are reaching a critical juncture for vaccination globally and hopefully this unfortunate event will be behind us soon.
In this report I will be analysing Team defence and offence. I will be ranking players based on their positions, checking the FDR for fixtures and finally sharing a few pros and cons for a few drafts that I had made. The report will conclude with my final draft with which I will be starting GW1 this season.
Before I deep dive I would like to share the link to our GFCT & IFCT Telegram chats:
The Global FPL chat’s aim is to bring together dedicated FPL managers who have a common goal to win FPL. The chat is filled with managers who understand that the battle to succeed is only against ourselves. To spend time with managers who challenge and inspire us to grow. The ability for us to understand the trends and manage our individual emotions is what leads us to become better managers. The core group of this chat will try and streamline discussions, research and debate so that everyone can improve their knowledge and decision making ability to play the game at their best.
Give me six hours to chop down a tree and I will spend four hours sharpening my axe
– Anonymous Woodsman
There are two league and within each League we will have two winners as stated below:
Prize for the League Winner: A 1 year subscription to FFHUB
Prize for the League Cup Winner: A 1 year subscription to FFHUB
(Sponsored by FFHub)
We are very particular about our zero-tolerance policy so please have a read before joining the chats. And while you will be missing out you are most welcome to join the leagues even if you don’t want to join the chats. The League final closing will share the deadline of GW9.
So let’s attack the upcoming GW’s and try and learn from the data what it is that it signals and whether there are any moves we can make that can help us accelerate our overall rank going forward. We intend to continue to do well and make better FPL decision, so lets get right to it!
Let’s start with the TEAM DATA:
OFFENCE: GW1 TO GW38 (2020)
ATTACKING STATS for EPL 9/20
The above table has been sorted by Big Chances Created by teams over the season.
The coloured columns at the end of the table are for Goals Per Match – and their deviation from the median. Big Chances Per Match – and their deviation from the median.
We want to target teams that score atleast 55 goals a season which gives us an average of 1.45 per game. If they can do that like Spurs with only 271 shots in the box then nothing like it. It shows how clinical both Son and Kane were.
We had a season xG of 980 but total goals that were scored were only 942.
Teams like LIV, CHE, AVL, BHA, SOU, WOL, BUR underperformed their xG and failed to convert their big chances significantly.
Teams like MCI, TOT, WHU, LEI and ARS outperformed their xG and converted most of their big chances.
Keeping the GPM% and BCPM% in mind looking at last season the teams I would like to target for my attack to begin with are:
LIV, MCI, MUN, CHE, TOT, LEE, WHU, AVL and LEI.
DEFENCE: GW1 TO GW38 (2020)
Defensive Stats for EPL19/20
The above table was sorted by Big Chances allowed by the teams while defending.
The coloured columns at the end of the table are for Goals Per Match conceded – and their deviation from the median. Clean Sheet percentage – and their deviation from the median.
Ideally we want a team that allows less than 1.25 goals per game and one that achieves atleast 10 clean sheets over the season.
Over the last few seasons only 8/9 teams used to give us 10 CS’s per season but last season we had a whopping 13 teams do that.
This is reflected by these teams who significantly outperformed their xGC – ARS, TOT, MUN, WHU, BUR. With the largest outperformance coming from LIV, AVL and LEE.
From the perspective of GPM% and CS% it clear to see that MCI and CHE are miles ahead of the pack. LIV & ARS while lower on the CS% never conceded too many even when they did. AVL on the other hand outperformed it’s expected CS data.
Based on the above data the teams I would like target from a defensive perspective are:
MCI, CHE, LIV, BHA, ARS, TOT, MUN, WHU, AVL and EVE.
A gentle reminder:
The worst teams give us around 7 to 9 CS’s a season. So anything above 10 CS’s is good and anything above 12/13 was fantastic!
13GW’s out of 38GW’s is 34%.
So before jumping the ship on decent defending FPL assets please realise that most of the time (66% in this case) you will not have a CS even with the best. We are relying on their attacking threat for returns and attacking defenders in good teams cost top dollar!
I also wanted to show a pictorial representation of how a few teams improved or weakened in the second half of the season:
The Blue highlight is from GW1 to GW20 and the Red highlight is from GW20 to GW38.
A larger Right side shows greater Attacking ability while a larger Left side shows greater defensive ability.
It’s quite self-explanatory for example: without Grealish AVL suffered both on the defensive and offensive side in the first image. BHA on the other hand improved significantly in the second half of the season with regards to their Defence.
The final comparison is to highlight how much Liverpool had deteriorated since the their 21 CS season in defence. As they were trying their best make it to the UCL one could assume that they had to prioritise attack in the final weeks last year. Liverpool conceded a whopping 84 Big Chances last season – worst in the league along with SOU, LEE and CRY. But this is a theme we have noticed since before VVD got injured and it will be interesting to see how they get on this season.
Please keep in mind that a few teams have new coaches and the above data might not truly hold for them. If it was mid-season we might have or might not have jumped on their assets due to a managerial change.
Fixture Difficulty Rating – FDR
FDR at the very start of the season is a very opinion oriented process and I rather depend upon others who know what they are doing.
I prefer using Tim Bayer’s FDR which is available for free. The link to the same is here:
MUN, WHU, BHA, WAT, EVE that have good fixtures in the first 7 GW’s hit the bottom of the table in the next 7.
MCI, CHE, SOU, NOR who have tougher fixtures at the start move to the top of the table post GW7.
TOT, LIV, WOL, LEE, LEI, NEW, ARS remain in the mid to top range throughout the first 14 GW’s.
Please keep in mind that fans are back and we expect the Home and Away advantage to have an impact on team form once again.
PLAYER DATA:
Now lets try and analyse how the players did and whether that could help us analyse the potential for them this upcoming season.
I have taken a few liberties as I have tried to maximise the possible potential for each player and then try and zero down on how they could provide points maximisation for our teams.
1. For players like Kane, Salah, Doherty, KDB, TAA, Robbo, Auba etc who are premiums who have played over 2/3 seasons and might have or might not have had a good season last year I have smoothened their data out by the average of the last three years.
2. I have then generated a rank using the weightages below. This again can vary from manager to manager but these are how I have come to my conclusions.
I have chosen the per 90 metric for the FWD’s and MID’s because we want to maximise potential returns with those attacking assets. I have chosen and given CS instead of per 90 metric to DEF’s because we don’t want to to be wasting transfers on our defenders and hold them for longer if possible.
The metric does not showcase a players talent per se. It is about maximising points. Hence if a KDB comes lower than others in the rank metric it could be because of lower minutes, less goals than players in a similar bracket etc.
3. I have shown two tables for each category. One for the rank achieved by the above metric and another one based on points per match along with the players rank above or below the median %.
We need to add our personal gut, eye test and FPL playing style to formulate a team based on these stats. Please use these table only as a sound board. After all these are past performances.
So lets have a look!
FORWARDS:
FWDS SORTED BY RANK
These are the forwards ranked by the weightages given to different sets of data.
The coloured column at the end is their net score and how it stands against the median for all the players in this table in percentage terms.
Kane is in a league of his own despite the smoothening. Vardy, Jimenez, Bamford and Watkins are the next best bets based on the rating.
FWDS SORTED BY PPM
In this table I have simply sorted the FWDS based on their PPM.
We need to maximise our returns from our assets and hence PPM plays an important role. We should think of this as a kind of second filter to the first table.
For example we can see that Wilson, Abraham and DCL have moved up the table here.
RANK + PPM =
So my inference from the two tables would be that Kane and Vardy are season keepers.
Jimenez, Bamford and Watkins should keep ticking along through the season but at a lower run rate.
Wilson, DCL and Abraham can be depended upon when their fixtures are good and probably give us higher returns per match during this period.
MIDFIELDERS:
MIDS SORTED BY RANK
These are the midfielders ranked by the weightages given to different sets of data.
The coloured column at the end is their net score and how it stands against the median for all the players in this table in percentage terms.
Bruno, Son and Salah are in a league of their own despite the smoothening. Mane, Harrison, Rashford, Mount, Raphihna, KDB, Gundo, Grealish and JWP are the next best bets based on the rating.
MIDS SORTED BY PPM
In this table I have simply sorted the MIDS based on their PPM.
We need to maximise our returns from our assets and hence PPM plays an important role. We should think of this as a kind of second filter to the first table.
For example we can that KDB, Mahrez, Grealish and Gundo have moved up the table here.
RANK + PPM=
So my inference from the two tables would be that Bruno, Son and Salah are season keepers.
KDB, Mahrez, Grealish, Sterling, Mount, Harrison, Raphinha, Foden, Mane, Rashford should keep ticking along through the season at a slightly lower run rate.
Maddison, Zaha, Jota, JWP, Barnes can be depended upon when their fixtures are good and give outsized returns per match.
DEFENDERS:
DEF SORTED BY RANK
These are the defenders ranked by the weightages given to different sets of data.
The coloured column at the end is their net score and how it stands against the median for all the players in this table in percentage terms.
TAA, Robbo and VVD in a league of their own despite the smoothening. Cresswell, Doherty, AWB, Shaw, Targett, Digne, Coufal, Chilwell, Cancelo are the next best bets based on the rating.
DEF SORTED BY PPM
In this table I have simply sorted the DEFS based on their PPM.
We need to maximise our returns from our assets and hence PPM plays an important role. We should think of this as a kind of second filter to the first table.
For example we can that KDB, Mahrez, Grealish and Gundo have moved up the table here.
RANK + PPM=
So my inference from the two tables would be that TAA, Robbo and VVD have consistently been good over the years. (CS’s have been an issue lately and we will have to monitor this as the season progresses)
Chilwell, Digne, Cancelo, Shaw, AWB, Cresswell, Coufal, Targett, Doherty, Stones should keep ticking along through the season – run rate should be good but rotation is the key factor reducing the appeal for a few (MCI & CHE assets) while the rest are expected to return in the form of attacking returns even when we don’t get CS’s.
Dias, Dunk, Rudiger, Mings, James, Keane, Evans, Azpi are the next best bet within the bracket.
Phillips is the only 4.5 mln asset that has made the PPM table and had attacking returns. If he gets a move to another club then he would be my first preference in the 4.5 mln bracket.
GOALKEEPERS:
GK’s SORTED BY CS’s
These are the goalkeepers sorted by the amount of CS’s they kept last season.
The last three columns are GCPM – Goals conceded per match, CS % – Clean sheets percentage and BPS Mean – how many bonus points they have and how far they stand from the median returns of the players.
As per the GCPM data:
We see that Ederson, Mendy, Sanchez, Allison and Henderson do well. We also see that they all fail in the bonus department because they have such good defensive assets ahead of them.
As per the CS % data:
We once again see Ederson and Mendy but we also see De Gea, Sanchez, Pope and Martinez amongst the best.
As per the BPS data:
We see Guita and Lloris do okay with Pope and Meslier doing very well but Martinez is in a league of his own.
We have seen over the last few seasons that we never know when the defence of a team will improve and even in the case of teams like Liverpool, when the defence will collapse.
Therefore I like a combination of the metrics shown above so that even when my GK doesn’t get a CS he can get save points and be on the bonus chart. Based on that my preference for a keeper with outsized returns are Martinez, Pope or Meslier if Leeds can keep up their latter half of the season defending.
For more steady returns betting purely on CS’s I would invest in Ederson, Mendy or Sanchez.
Guita is one to keep an eye on if they are able to improve defensively.
TEAM CONSTRUCTION:
A couple of things I will be looking at with regards to the construction of the team:
1. Extrapolation of points
2. Total Big chances for the team
3. Total Big chances created by the team
4. Total Bonus points for the team
5. Average Points per match
6. Captaincy Options in the team
A few other considerations one should keep in mind while constructing their teams:
This is very important to dissect who the main player from a team is with regards to FPL points.
For example: City scored 83 goals but none of their assets crossed 160 points. Where as Everton scored only 47 goals and DCL scored 165 points.
When you hear managers talk about can a certain player be covered in FPL – the Talisman report is the one shop stop to understand why certain players/teams can be covered and others that cannot.
Please refer to FDR spoken about earlier with regards to fixtures spoken about below.
Full budget used in all drafts.
TEAM 1 – Attacking the opening fixtures:
TEAM 1 – ATTACKING OPENING FIXTURES
TEAM 1– ATTACKING OPENING FIXTURES
4-4-2 formation with decent amount of BC and BCC. Bonus and total points is healthy as well. We get 2 solid Captaincy options to choose from.
TEAM 2 – 3 Big Hitters:
3 Big HItters
3 Big hitters
4-4-2 with all 3 popular premiums in the draft. Overall team score and bonus drops while overall goals and assists do not rise.
TEAM 3 – Balanced Squad:
Balanced Squad
Balanced squad
Lot of flexibility with this draft as price points are well covered and one can move easily between positions and price points. However, lack of 2 premiums leads to a drastic drop in overall points.
TEAM 4 – All out attack:
All out attack
All out attack
A 4-3-3 formation with attacking players across the board. Healthy total goals and assists but still we do not see a significant rise in the overall points expected.
TEAM 5 – Big at the back!
Big at the back
Big at the back
A 5-3-2 formation where the overall score jumps nicely for the team due to the attacking defenders being bonus magnets. Goals drop significantly for the team.
TEAM 6 – Long Haul fixture agnostic team:
Long Haul fixture agnostic
Long haul fixture agnostic
A 4-4-2 formation with teams that remain in the middle to top of the FDR table with most of their steady returning players. If one is confident in Captaining Son then one has 3 captain choices in this.
Overall Table:
Overall Table for drafts
I hope this has helped give a fair indication of where the different drafts have advantages and disadvantages.
Captaincy is a very important decision where we FPL managers get to double our points every week. In good weeks it can help us catapult in rank and in bad weeks it can help us hold rank. This is where the balance between a few concentrated assets versus a very balanced team comes in.
I really hope that you have found this enjoyable and I hope that we can use this to our advantage this season.
Thank you so much for reading and I look forward to your constructive feedback as always. I look forward to learning every game week and I wish you all the very best for your FPL teams!
The current International Break feels like the first chance I’ve had since November to take fresh stock of my spreadsheet’s rolling data, and see what interesting trends have emerged in the meantime.
First off, a quick reminder to you that I ran parallel models last season to test which number of gameweeks provided my spreadsheet predictions with the strongest correlation to actual scores, and I established that an 8 gameweek data range was optimal. Ever since then, my spreadsheet’s predictions have been based on each team’s last 8 home or away games (whichever is relevant) for the upcoming gameweek.
Every team is given a weighting for attack and defence strength, based on their last 8 home and last 8 away games. The resulting ratios represent how many xG teams are expected to score or concede against a defence or attack with a rating of 1.00 (average). They are updated after each gameweek, and by charting the fluctuations in these ratios we can observe the directions in which teams are trending.
The best to worst 8 game sequences are coloured on a scale of blue to red, making it easy to see where in the season each team’s best and worst xG form was leading into gameweeks 1 to 30. For example, the most noticeable trends in the home attack strength table below are the resurgent ones achieved by LEI and MUN, and the downward ones experienced by LIV and CHE.
Appendix I
Unsurprisingly, given their well documented fall from grace, the most dramatic decline seen by any team in any category is the home soil attacking form of LIV, which is now below average for the first time in a long time.
average xG expected to score vs an average away defence
Worryingly, for those heavily invested in Bamford, Raphina, Dallas et al, the rate of decline in home attacking form for LEE looks actually even more pronounced, due to their rating peaking a couple of gameweeks later than LIV. Their impressive looking improvement in the first half of the season should be disregarded as this likely only shows my initial best guess weighting for a promoted side underestimated them.
average xG expected to score vs an average away defence
The alarming drop off in both home and away attacking form for AVL since the injury absence of Grealish is captured by my rolling data, with the talisman’s last home appearance coinciding with Villa’s peak in GW23. Watkins owners ought to be very anxious for the club captain to return sooner rather than later.
average xG expected to score vs an average away defence
Trending in the opposite direction are LEI MUN and WHU (since GW20, GW17 and GW22 respectively) who all went into the International Break at the height of their home attacking powers.
average xG expected to score vs an average away defence
Evidently, the defences of teams visiting the King Power Stadium, Old Trafford, and the London Stadium respectively can expect to be thoroughly tested by these three hosts, who are currently ranked 1st, 2nd and 4th respectively for home attack strength.
The home form of LEI has been something of a revelation, considering they have tended in recent seasons to be much more effective on the road. I wondered if the Foxes have had a particularly favourable sequence of home fixtures lately, but this is seemingly not the case as their last 8 were against EVE, MUN, SOU, CHE, LEE, LIV, ARS, SHU.
Kudos also to Ole Solskjaer for seemingly turning around MUN‘s home form, which was really quite poor indeed in the first half of the season. WHU on the other hand have been relatively consistent throughout this season.
Turning our attention next to the home defence strength table, the three teams that have noticeably cut down the quality of goalscoring chances they concede to visiting teams are BHA ARS and NEW.
Appendix II
BHA have been a very frustrating team to follow this season from an xG perspective. They have failed to score in games where they have had chances equating to 3+xG, and consistently managed to concede in games they’ve restricted opposing teams to very few scoring opportunities in.
Even so, their transformation from one of the most porous teams last season to now ranking as the second best home defence in the league on current form, sandwiched between CHE and MCI, is nothing short of astounding.
average xG expected to be conceded vs an average away attack
Not quite so impressive, but arguably more surprising, NEW currently rank as the 6th best home defence in the league, having shown steady improvement throughout the season (see chart below), which maybe should temper expectations somewhat with regards to likely popular GW30 captaincy selections in the form of Kane, Son and Bale.
ARS have been a lot more erratic in their home defence form, but they have improved enough lately to occupy a season high rank of 7th best.
average xG expected to be conceded vs an average away attack
Thus far, we have only focused upon teams’ home form, so let us examine the performances of teams on their travels, starting with attacking strength.
Appendix III
The trends that stand out most in the away attack strength table above are the role reversals recorded by LIV, LEI and MUN. The significance of the upward trajectories achieved by ARS and WOL are also worthy of closer examination.
Arguably the only case that can be made for not selling Salah for those who still own him is the fact that LIV remain an attacking force to be reckoned with away from Anfield. In fact, as the chart below shows, their attacking process away from home has actually gradually improved throughout the season. Only the champions elect (MCI) carry more goal threat on current form.
average xG expected to score vs an average home defence
Earlier on this season, it was well understood that LEI and MUN were counter-attacking teams served better by playing away rather than at home. Well, for whatever reason, managerial design maybe or random variance, this pattern has well and truly flip-flopped. Compare the chart below with the one shown in the home attack strength section, and you will see the home and away weightings trending in opposite directions.
average xG expected to score vs an average home defence
The drop from season best weightings experienced by MUN and LEI are among the three steepest experienced by any team in this department, albeit they are still ranked 8th and 9th best on current form.
ARS on the other hand have been rapidly improving, and are now ranked a season high third best in this category, which contributes to them being predicted by my spreadsheets to be the fourth highest scoring team over the next 6 gameweeks.
average xG expected to score vs an average home defence
WOL are currently predicted to be the sixth highest scorers over the next 6 gameweeks and, on the cusp of a favourable fixture swing, it is encouraging for would-be investors in their assets to see the recent turnaround in underlying attacking stats. The fact they enter the appealing upcoming fixture run in better away attacking form than at any point in the season bodes well indeed for owners of Neto.
average xG expected to score vs an average defence
For the purposes of the next team under the away attack strength microscope I will show the same away table again, but this time with the teams colour shaded relative to all the other teams in the league.
Appendix VII
Having already referenced the improved home defence strength of NEW as a cause for concern for those planning to captain a Spurs player in GW30, it should be pointed out here that the case for doing so is weakened further by the lowly 16th place ranking TOT occupy in the away attack strength table above. Only SHU, NEW, CRY and BUR are reckoned to pose less goal threat on the road than Mourinho’s men, and it’s not as though the trendline below offers much in the way of encouragement either.
average xG expected to score vs an average home defence
And finally, here is the table for away defence strength, and the teams drawing my attention the most, for good reason and bad, are LIV, CHE, AVL and WOL.
Appendix IV
For those contemplating investing in WOL defenders ahead of their aforementioned favourable fixture run, the picture is not as promising as it is for their attackers. It appears at though the upturn in Wolves’ attacking process has come at the expense of their defensive process. Excluding the promoted sides, the extent of the decline in home and away defence performance are the worst and second-worst respectively. Consequently, having started the season considered as one of the best defences, they are now ranked only 12th best at home and 11th best away.
average xG expected to be conceded vs an average attack
Apologies to the legion of you who own Martinez (41.5%) and Targett (15.1%), but only one non-promoted side has suffered a worse decline in away defence strength weighting than WOL, and that is their West Midlands neighbours, AVL.
The visible ‘V’ shape below is indicative of striking improvements having been made in the first half of the season, followed by a no less dramatic reversion to expectation levels slightly lower than they were pre-season.
average xG expected to be conceded vs an average home attack
On current trends, the top 3 away defences in the league are MCI, LIV and CHE.
average xG expected to be conceded vs an average home attack
Whereas MCI have been consistently good throughout the season, the appointment of Tuchel has contributed towards eradicating the disparity that used to exist between the performances of the CHE defence at home versus those away. They are the most improved away defence in the league according to this review of rolling data.
Surprisingly, given they were last season’s runaway champions, it is LIV who are the next most improved in this department, and memories are revived of the preseason hype for Alexander-Arnold and Robertson. Now might not be the worst time to be owning either of that formerly much-vaunted duo.
Changing the lens through which we looked at the away defence strength table at the start of this section to one whereby the teams are colour shaded relative to all others, we see that the next best teams in this category are LEI TOT WHU ARS MUN and BHA.
Appendix VIII
Once again, I have found this to be a useful exercise to undertake, with some genuinely surprising findings. Admittedly, this retrospective analysis of team performance is not by itself predictive of future results. To that end, these tables and charts will need to be cross-referenced with my model’s predictions for future gameweeks, which take into account the relative strength of opposing teams to be faced, so keep an eye out for my screenshots later in the week; they will become my latest pinned tweet.
This season has been a long old slog, but we are entering the home stretch now, so best of luck to you all on the run-in. Wishing you all a green arrow fuelled late charge to the finishing line.
While I was working as a Trader I used to always write a proprietary report for trade ideas called, “Where are we placed?”. The idea was to first analyse where we stand currently and based on that and our forward assumptions (based on historical evidence and future event risks) try and envision the best possible outcomes in the various asset classes.
I have now decided to the do the same here in FPL and I will be publishing this report every 4 to 6 GW’s keeping the above process in mind. In case I can time it with a large fixture swing or Wildcard deadline then I might do that as well.
If you’d like to read the previous edition please press the link below:
Firstly, I have been away from the groups, the community, had to shut down the #GFCT Core research group and I wanted to explain why this was the case.
Last October my father had to get a pacemaker for his heart and when he went for the operation he unfortunately contracted COVID (already an acute asthmatic).
It was a horrible time for the family and we were very close to losing him. I am happy to say that he has recovered very well now but we decided to proactively deal with the family portfolio and real estate due to which I have been preoccupied.
I thank each one of you for understanding and really appreciate all the good wishes I received during this time. I am hopeful of a lot more interaction going forward.
I would like to take this opportunity to thank the following:
Shom Biswas, Chase Blocker, Chris Turner and Gabriel Penaloza. They were instrumental in the GFCT core research group and I will never be able to thank them enough for their help to the group!
I wish them all the best for the future and I will continue to learn a lot from their game play.
Alden Morris, Nitesh Ray & Rajat Aggarwal as they administered the chats exceptionally well and have also been instrumental in helping managers in their biweekly HELP DISCUSSIONS!
They remain an extension of me on the chats and they will continue to run them as they deem fit.
FPL Numbers, FPL Poker Player, FPL Legomane, FPL Corf, Rich FPL & FPL Pup continue to share their research on the chats and I am hopeful I can start publishing FPL Poker PLayer’s research once again on the GFCT website once he finds time to publish.
Secondly, I would like to touch upon the season we are having this year.
At the start of the season if you had told me that I would be comfortable owning Gündogan as my third City asset I would have laughed it off. However, I not only own him but expect a lot from him going forward too.
What’s been important this season is that managers who have been able to adapt have been the real winners. The good thing is that we still have half the season left and those who remain nimble and don’t judge a player by his past performance and price tag will continue to do well with the help of a little bit of luck!
This season we have so many good assets at so many different price ranges that there truly isn’t any one way to come up the ranks. Surprisingly both patient and impatient approaches are working as well with regards to transfers so one can really play one’s own game and this makes it all the more interesting!
Yes, even I’ve had an injury almost every week over the last few GW’s but one has to embrace it with a smile and keep oneself motivated with the most important attribute – Grit!
Moving forward, let’s attack the upcoming GW’s and try and learn from the data what it is that it signals and whether there are any moves we can make that can help us accelerate our overall rank going forward. We intend to continue to do well and make better FPL decision, so lets get right to it!
I will be dividing the analysis between the entire 21 GW’s and the last 8 GW’s. This way we can compare results to reach a more fruitful conclusion seeing recent developments as against seasonal performance.
Let’s start with the TEAM DATA:
GW1 To GW21:
ATTACKING STATS 20/21
The above table is sorted by total goals for the season.
We have has a total of 544 goals from an xG of 588. This gap has increased as the season has moved forward and we feel this is a healthy development. Infact if this level of xG is sustained we can see more goals going forward.
We had stated that we want attacking assets from teams that score in excess of 60 goals per season (1.5 goals PG) and currently the only teams over the season that are not at that average are: LIV, LEI, MNU, MCI, LEE, CHE, AVL TOT, WHU and EVE.
We can also see that the above table shows that the current teams are significantly outperforming their Big Chances Created – which needs to be monitored as goals could dry up if this outperformance reverts to the mean: LEI, SOU, WBA.
GW14 To GW21:
ATTACKING STATS 20/21
The above table is sorted by total goals for the season.
LIV, FUL, MNU, TOT are underperforming as per the big chances they create.
SOU has seen a significant drop off recently which might be due to the injures the team has faced along with fewer games played. ARS has really picked up pace with regards to their attack. MNU, AVL, MCI and LIV are miles ahead with regards to Big Chances Created.
SHU, FUL, CRY, NEW, EVE, WBA really need to find some form if they want to start winning games as despite having very average data they are underperforming with the same.
GW1 To GW21:
Defensive Stats for EPL 20/21
The above table is sorted by Big Chances conceded.
Looking at the total shots in the box and under performance as compared to the expected goals conceded we can see that both BHA, CHE, WOL have been unlucky.
Having studied the big chances, shots in the box, goals conceded and clean sheets we can say that the following defences have been stronger than others: MCI, ARS, AVL, CHE.
A gentle reminder:
The worst teams give us around 7 to 9 CS’s a season. So anything above 10 CS’s is good and anything above 12/13 was fantastic!
13GW’s out of 38GW’s is 34%.
So before jumping the ship on decent defending FPL assets please realise that most of the time (66% in this case) you will not have a CS even with the best. We are relying on their attacking threat for returns and attacking defenders in good teams cost top dollar!
GW14 To GW21:
Defensive Stats for EPL 20/21
The above table is sorted by Big Chances conceded.
NEW, BUR, CRY, WBA, LEE, CHE, FUL are giving away too many big chances and conceding goals as a combination and as a result are unable to keep clean sheets.
MNU, AVL, BUR, CHE, MNU, SOU, TOT have conceded big chances but have somehow not conceded so many goals and have been able to keep clean sheets as well.
MCI, LEI, LIV, EVE, ARS, BHA have been the best defensive teams recently with regards to the data.
Fixture Difficulty Rating – FDR
As I will be publishing this report every 4 to 6 GW’s, I have taken the liberty to divide the FDR below into two halves.
I have used my own metrics along with other FDR’s to reach this. So please be advised to check your own too.
UPCOMING FDR
CRY has the standout fixtures over the next few GW’s and their assets are under owned and could provide us with an opportunity.
In the short term (6 GW’s) AVL, SHU, TOT, BHA are expected to have favourable fixtures but going forward (10 GW’s) CHE, SOU, MNU, NEW, EVE are supposed to have the favourable fixtures.
While this is system generated I request everyone to sit and analyze each fixture themselves because I do not agree with the results with regards to a few teams.
PLAYER DATA:
I have changed my manner of shortlisting players in this publication. Instead of finding good stats for players and short listing them, I am shortlisting based on total points for the period and comparing the outperformance to expected points.
This reduces the chances of choosing players who might or might not do well. We are analyzing and choosing from players who are already ticking along well.
Ofcourse we will take a call on upcoming fixtures, rotation, Captaincy options and team form for the final outcome.
FORWARDS:
GW1 To GW21:
FWD DATA 20/21
The above table is sorted by the max outperformance of total points as against expected points for the highest scorers in the period mentioned.
Kane, Wilson, Vardy, Bamford & DCL, have been the top performers over this season having scored the most goals, bonus points, and points outperformance.
Kane stands out as a player who has also created a lot of chances.
Firmino, Werner, Maupay & Watkins have the biggest underperformers.
GW14 To GW21:
FWD DATA 20/21
Kane, Lacazette & Tammy are the highest outperformers as against their expected points in recent GW’s.
Watkins & Martial are underperforming their expected stats in recent GW’s. Luckily for both they have a fantastic run coming up where we can see them improve their final product.
Another important observation we have seen is that most strikers have been involved in assists as well especially for Bamford and Watkins which was non-existent earlier in the season.
MIDFIELDERS:
GW1 To GW21:
MID STATS 20/21
Son, Maddison, JWP & Salah are miles ahead of anyone with regards to outperformance.
Fernandes, Grealish, Zaha, Barnes & Soucek have all be very good this season and are clinical too.
KDB, Mane, Rashford, Sterling & Neto while scoring well are still showing signs of underperformance as against their expected data.
GW14 To GW21:
MID STATS 20/21
It’s fair to say that we have a wide variety of mids performing very well over the last 8 GW’s. Let’s hope this run continues and we continue to have so many good options available to make rank!
DEFENDERS:
GW1 To GW21:
DEF STATS 20/21
This is a very surprising outcome. Minus Stones there is no outperformer this season amongst Defenders.
I think this is because as compared to the expected points the final outcome has been very poor. We can blame the lack of clean sheets in the earlier part of the season and the conversion of their goal involvement for the same.
Zouma and Dallas are goal scorers where as Robbo, Cresswell and Chilwell are the assisters.
Robbo and Cancelo are way ahead when it comes to creating big chances.
GW14 To GW21:
DEF STATS 20/21
Stones, Dias, Targett, Azpilicueta, Holding & Cresswell are the most out performing defenders over the last 6 GW’s.
Silva, Dias, Cash, Holding and Cancelo have been the bonus magnets recently.
Robbo, Maguire and Dunk have under performed their expected points in recent weeks.
GOALKEEPERS:
GW1 To GW21:
GK STATS 20/21
Martinezand Pope have been the pick of the lot this season despite having played less games but we can also see that bonus points are so important for Keepers as shown by Lloris, Fabianskiand Guita.
There is a very tight range between the keeper returns and we can see that despite more CS’s Ederson still has fewer points as compared to Pope & Martinez. A mixture of saves and CS’s is important.
This once again confirms that we shouldn’t waste transfers on our keepers once we have made out decision.
GW14 To GW21:
GK STATS 20/21
MCI have been solid. Leno has been very good in recent weeks.
Meslier, Ramsdale, Darlow, Guita have conceded a lot of goals in the last few GW’s.
Finally, an update on my team and future plans:
While it’s been a very average season for me till now I write this as I finally revert back into the top 1 million managers, Woot Woot!
I have used my 2nd Wildcard early in GW20 and my luck to import injury prone players and players who get dropped continues haha! (Kane, Mitchell & Chilwell)
I still have my FH, BB & TC left and I am confident I can still try and aim for the Top 100K by end of the season!
What has gone well for me this season is my calls on Captaincy. It has been a volatile few GW’s due to my rule of only Captaining Premium options but this has been my best run at mid season till now and I’m hoping I continue to get this right.
Below is my updated team for GW22:
I have 1.0 mln in the bank and hopefully if no players are injured I can use the extra funds to get a decent BB team for GW26.
Thank you so much for reading and I look forward to your constructive feedback as always.
I look forward to learning every game week and I wish you all the very best for your FPL teams!
GW16 to GW21 has seen the defenders top the weekly FPL return tables.
The likes of Mee, Tierney, Keane, Stones, Cancelo & Azpilicueta all scoring very well.
The premiums have been a let down with Salah finally returning this GW against WHU, a team he has a good personal record against. Mind you WHU is in hot form and we should see them bounce back soon.
Chelsea has seen a manager change help them tighten things up in defense but they are yet to find their free flowing attacking rhythm.
We still expect rotation over the next few weeks due to back to back deadlines and UCL & EUL post GW24. Spending on your bench remains essential for now in our opinion.
The next update will be done in a few GW’s, thanks a lot for your patience!
Please find the league update below:
No. of participating Managers: 305
The league average (Top 5 managers) is: 1370.00
Our League leader is: Jerry Stanly.
TOP THIRTY LEAGUE TABLE:
EFFECTIVE OWNERSHIP:
CAPTAINCY:
CHIP USE:
We wish our participants all the best!
The league is now closed but managers are still invited to join our chats on Telegram. The link to which is on the registration page of the site.
GW16 to GW21 has seen the defenders top the weekly FPL return tables.
The likes of Mee, Tierney, Keane, Stones, Cancelo & Azpilicueta all scoring very well.
The premiums have been a let down with Salah finally returning this GW against WHU, a team he has a good personal record against. Mind you WHU is in hot form and we should see them bounce back soon.
Chelsea has seen a manager change help them tighten things up in defense but they are yet to find their free flowing attacking rhythm.
We still expect rotation over the next few weeks due to back to back deadlines and UCL & EUL post GW24. Spending on your bench remains essential for now in our opinion.
The next update will be done in a few GW’s, thanks a lot for your patience!
Please find the league update below:
No. of participating Managers: 627
The league average (Top 5 managers) is: 1383
Our League leader is: Haris.
TOP THIRTY LEAGUE TABLE:
EFFECTIVE OWNERSHIP:
CAPTAINCY:
CHIP USE:
We wish our participants all the best!
The league is now closed but managers are still invited to join our chats on Telegram. The link to which is on the registration page of the site.
Welcome back to the FPL Matchups article. A bit of a different approach this week as I would like to examine the 4 popular premium players that are capturing the attention of FPL managers. In this analysis, I wanted to honor season long production, while giving special emphasis to sustained form (6 GWs). I have taken 7 stats I deem important and have averaged the last 6 GWs with the season long stats.
A bit of a shorter read this week as I spend more time with family. I hope you all have the same privilege.
4 Horsemen
Salah
Bruno
KDB
Kane
I’d like to begin with the raw data. Reminder that we all see and value stats differently. This is where it gets interesting. The way we value stats and give import to matchups, is how we will choose the right combination for our teams.
Last 6 GWs allows a variety of fixture to discern form is not exclusively tied to fixtures.
All stats per 90.
Legend:
Salah Salah is the clear winner here, but he is not without red flags. His stats, similarly to Kane in the first 6 GWs, is buoyed by a being involved in 8 goals in the last 6 with an expected involvement in 2.57 goals. The xGI Delta of +5.43 is concerning. The fact that he is putting his chances on target more than the rest, however, may indicate sustainability. 3rd in xGI raises an eyebrow, and we hope he becomes more of a talisman, as he was in the first few GWs.
Bruno Doesn’t get in the box as much as we’d like, but that is not news to most managers. The interesting thing is that despite shooting from distance (4th for SIB), he is 2nd in accuracy. Getting shots on frame is key to future FPL points, and a sign of form in my opinion. His xG of 0.5/90 leads this bunch, which indicates the chances he is taking are still high quality. We must also remember penalties are a factor here.
KDB The fact that KDB leads in SIB and is last in SOT is obviously a big red flag. For those of us with the privilege of being able to watch the games have seen KDBs shots get blocked repeatedly. As a coach, I see KDB taking too long to get the shot off. The ball is often getting stuck under him, requiring an extra touch. The other thing I see happening is KDB is finding the target AFTER he takes his first touch. He needs to see the shot before the ball gets to him, and shoot without looking again.
Kane The drop in BC, BCC, and xG is almost identical. I believe they are linked, and the one that pulls the others is the BCC. Kane’s decline in production has come with his reduced creativity, imo. When he is creating chances for Son, he is simultaneously opening space for himself. Spurs have the potential to explode and bury any manager without an asset, as evidenced by the fact that he is maintaining a respectable 1.33 SIB/90 (same as Salah), and 1 SOT/90 (same as KDB) over a period of depressed attacking form.
The Averages
Your selection of these players will largely depend on how you value each data point here. I read the data as follows:
Salah is doing Salah things. He is wizarding the path of the ball into the goal. TAA returning behind him is also a big bonus.
Bruno is joint top for BC in this group with Salah. The difference is that Salah is last for BCC, while Bruno is 2nd. The variety of ways to points is appealing.
KDB being 1st for SIB is as surprising as being 4th for SOT. As stated earlier, KDBs shots are being blocked often. For me, this is a sign of poor form. Do we think KDB will find form? If yes, get him. If no, don’t.
Kane seems the bottom pick here, but he was a phenom of statistical overperformance over the first 8 GWs. The last 6 GWs tell a different story for Kane, but we must not rely too much on the stats with a player in his role.
I intentionally do not want to over-analyze these stats. I mostly want to present them and give a brief glimpse of the process.
Will Salah continue overperforming? Will Bruno’s form persist? Will we know who is MCI? Will Kane overperform again? Your answers to these questions are in the way you see the games and the stats.
TheLittle Prince Pick of the Week
Richarlison
I’m going with a gut pick of a preseason favorite of mine. No stats here, just the knowledge that Basham and Baldock push high up the field. I expect Richarlison to post juicy returns this GW in a prime fixture for him and his skillset.
Thanks, as always, for spending a bit of your time with my FPL thoughts for GW15. Please tag me in the telegram chat if you would like to engage on this topic. You can also reach me on twitter. Only the happiest of holidays to you all! Be kind.
These are biweekly Q&A videos that the GFCT Core Research Team will be making to answer the questions we get every alternate Monday from the Global and the Indian Telegram Chat from FPL managers.
This will alternate with the research note sent out to the chat by the Core Research Team every alternate Wednesday as well. (Pragmatic Strategy Report).
This week we have our own Gabriel Penaloza, Nitesh Ray and Chase Blocker answer the FPL Questions.
They discuss whether one should keep or move on from DCL citing the fixtures firm up for Everton, whether one can go through GW19 without using the FH chip, which chips are viable for the DGW. They discuss everything FPL, from matchups, player potential, expectations going forward.
Please do enjoy the video and share it with your fellow FPL managers!
All our videos will be on BloccFPL’s youtube channel so please click the link below and subscribe to the youtube channel so you never miss our research going forward.
While I was working as a Trader I used to always write a proprietary report for trade ideas called, “Where are we placed?”. The idea was to first analyse where we stand currently and based on that and our forward assumptions (based on historical evidence and future event risks) try and envision the best possible outcomes in the various asset classes.
I have now decided to the do the same here in FPL and I will be publishing this report every 4 to 6 GW’s keeping the above process in mind. In case I can time it with a large fixture swing or Wildcard deadline then I might do that as well.
If you’d like to read the previous edition please press the link below:
It’s been a fantastic season so far with a lot of exciting football being played. Some huge scores have been seen and teams that get thrashed one week go and thrash other bigger teams the next week.
Home and away advantage still hasn’t mattered much but the amount of goals has definitely dropped as can be seen from the xG for all teams in the last 6 GW’s has been 179 but goals scored are only 154. At the same time not many teams are keeping clean sheets either and we are getting goals both ways even in a low scoring game.
FPL wise its been a very exciting season with most of the managers I know doing really well. Well done!
Personally, I haven’t been able to catch the wind beneath my sails but I am looking forward to learning where I went wrong so I never repeat those mistakes again.
OWN YOUR OUTCOMES:
Expert from – Where are we placed #GW9
One should also notice that over the next 8 GW’s both these teams have the best fixtures with Liverpool actually signalling the best defensive fixtures as well.
LIV UPCOMING FIXTURES: LEI, BHA, WOL, FUL, TOT, CRY, WBA, NEW
Minus LEI & TOT their fixtures look extremely promising for clean sheets.
The community as a whole ignored LEI’s make shift defence recently with all the injuries and they have kept 2 out of 3 CS’s.
With the following line up by GW10/GW11:
TAA – Fabihno – Matip – Robbo with Thiago ahead of them.
I feel one should not fall for the Twitter bashing in this case. This is a solid line up and we can expect CS points apart from attacking returns till GW16.
This will be my contrarian play in the upcoming weeks and with my WC still intact I am willing to risk 5 GW’s of a LIV defensive double up!
While most are running away from their defensive assets, those with risk appetite might do very well picking one if not two defensive assets till GW16.
Fortune favours the brave!
This was my opinion in the last report. But what did I end up doing?
I did not have faith in my own contrarian call. In fact I got scared of the EO of Chelsea defenders and the damage they were doing to my overall rank and ended up getting them into my team for a hit!
What was the result from GW9 to GW14?
Robertson & Matip, the two assets I wanted to own have gone on to be the highest scoring defensive assets in this period with 37 and 30 points respectively.
Lesson Learnt:
“Dreams and hope won’t get you anywhere; only actions do; actions create results.
– Anas Hamsari.
So I’ve decided to make myself a promise:
I will never play fearfully again, never!
So let’s attack the upcoming GW’s and try and learn from the data what it is that it signals and whether there are any moves we can make that can help us accelerate our overall rank going forward. We intend to continue to do well and make better FPL decision, so lets get right to it!
I will be dividing the analysis between the entire 14 GW’s and the last 6 GW’s. This way we can compare results to reach a more fruitful conclusion seeing recent developments as against seasonal performance.
Let’s start with the TEAM DATA:
GW1 To GW14:
ATTACKING STATS 20/21
The above table is total goals for the season.
We have has a total of 399 goals from an xG of 405. This gap has reduced as the season has moved forward and we feel this is a healthy development.
We had stated that we want attacking assets from teams that score in excess of 60 goals per season (1.5 goals PG) and currently the only teams over the season that are not at that average are: MCI, CRY, NEW, BHA, WOL, FUL, ARS, WBA, BUR, SHU.
We can also see that the above table shows that the current teams are significantly outperforming their Big Chances Created – which needs to be monitored as goals could dry up if this outperformance reverts to the mean: LEI, SOU.
Teams that are performing as per their data: LIV, TOT, CHE, AVL, LEE, WHU, MNU.
GW9 To GW14:
ATTACKING STATS 20/21
The above table is total goals.
MCI, SHU, BHA, CHE are significantly underperforming as per the big chances they create.
TOT is the stand out when it comes to the drop in the table with the lowest SITB, and averaging on 1 big chance per game with 1 goal per game. Please be mindful that they had the toughest run of fixtures in this period being analyzed.
BUR, BHA, WBA, SHU & ARS really need to find some form if they want to start winning games as despite having very average data they are underperforming with the same.
GW1 To GW14:
Defensive Stats for EPL 20/21
The above table is sorted by Big Chances conceded.
Looking at the total shots in the box and under performance as compared to the expected goals conceded we can see that both BHA, CHE have been unlucky.
Having studied the big chances, shots in the box, goals conceded and clean sheets we can say that the following defences have been stronger than others: MCI, AVL, CHE, MNU, LEI, LIV, TOT.
A gentle reminder:
The worst teams give us around 7 to 9 CS’s a season. So anything above 10 CS’s is good and anything above 12/13 was fantastic!
13GW’s out of 38GW’s is 34%.
So before jumping the ship on decent defending FPL assets please realise that most of the time (66% in this case) you will not have a CS even with the best. We are relying on their attacking threat for returns and attacking defenders in good teams cost top dollar!
GW9 To GW14:
Defensive Stats for EPL 20/21
The above table is sorted by Big Chances conceded.
NEW, WOL, CRY, WBA, SHU, LEE are giving away too many big chances and conceding goals as a combination and as a result are unable to keep clean sheets.
MNU, LEI & LIV has conceded big chances but have somehow not conceded so many goals and have been able to keep clean sheets as well.
CHE, MCI, TOT, AVL have been the best defensive teams recently with regards to the data.
Fixture Difficulty Rating – FDR
As I will be publishing this report every 4 to 6 GW’s, I have taken the liberty to divide the FDR below into two halves.
I have used my own metrics along with other FDR’s to reach this. So please be advised to check your own too.
FDR RANKING FOR COMING GW’s
GW15 TO 17 leading up to the BGW shows that BUR, TOT, LIV have the best fixtures where as CHE, MCI, NEW on the tougher side.
I have not added GW18 in this FDR as it is a blank gameweek.
GW19 To GW25 we see that MNU, WHU, LEE have the best fixtures while TOT, SHU, NEW seem to be on the tougher side.
While this is system generated I request everyone to sit and analyze each fixture themselves because I do not agree with the results with regards to a few teams. For example: TOT.
PLAYER DATA:
I have changed my manner of shortlisting players in this publication. Instead of finding good stats for players and short listing them, I am shortlisting based on total points for the period and comparing the outperformance to expected points.
This reduces the chances of choosing players who might or might not do well. We are analyzing and choosing from players who are already ticking along well.
Ofcourse we will take a call on upcoming fixtures, rotation, Captaincy options and team form for the final outcome.
FORWARDS:
GW1 To GW14:
FWD DATA 20/21
The above table is sorted by the max outperformance of total points as against expected points for the 12 highest scorers in the period mentioned.
Kane, Wilson, Vardy & DCL have been the top performers over this season having scored the most goals, bonus points, and points outperformance.
Kane stands out as a player who has also created a lot of chances.
Richarlison, Werner & Watkins have the biggest underperformers.
Adams and Bamford are ticking along and where Bamford makes up in goals, Adams has made up in Assists and creating chances.
GW9 To GW14:
FWD DATA 20/21
Abraham, Kane, Vardy & Wilson are the highest outperformers as against their expected points in recent GW’s.
DCL, Firmino, Adams have been very good and are performing as per expectations.
Bamford, Wood & Martial are underperforming their expected stats in recent GW’s. Luckily for all three they have a fantastic run coming up where we can see them improve their outcome.
MIDFIELDERS:
GW1 To GW14:
MIDS STATS 20/21
Son is miles ahead of anyone with regards to outperformance and while most expect his form to revert it goes without saying that he has earned his high ownership this season!
Salah, Fernandes, JWP, Zaha, Grealish have all be very good this season and are outperforming too.
Neto & Bowen have posted great number and are ticking along very well this season for their price tags one should definitely take a punt on them from time to time.
KDB, Mane, Rashford & Sterling while scoring well are still showing signs of underperformance as against their expected data.
GW9 To GW14:
MIDS STATS 20/21
Salah, Son & Fernandes – the three highest PPG players in the midfield are at the top of the table and continue to be great FPL assets.
Neto, Soucek & Maddison are doing extremely well for their price tag and should be used from time to time.
KDB, Mahrez, El Ghazi & Rashford despite doing well are showing a lot of under performance in the last 6 GW’s.
DEFENDERS:
GW1 To GW14:
DEF STATS 20/21
This is a very surprising outcome. Minus Zouma there is no outperformer this season amongst Defenders.
I think this is because as compared to the expected points the final outcome has been very poor. We can blame the lack of clean sheets and the conversion of their goal involvement for the same.
Vestergaard, Zouma and Dallas are goal scorers where as Robbo, Cresswell and Chilwell are the assisters.
GW9 To GW14:
DEF STATS 20/21
Matip, Robbo, Stones and Taylor are the most out performing defenders over the last 6 GW’s.
Dias has the most underperformance as against expected as he did nothing with his 2 big chances and has had no creative involvement as well. The eye test shows he has been close to scoring and with him being the backbone of a very solid MCI defence I would not overlook him despite this.
Ogbonna, Lindelof, Dallas are ticking along well and all three have fantastic fixtures till GW25.
GOALKEEPERS:
GW1 To GW14:
GK’s STATS 20/21
Martinez has the pick of the lot this season despite having played two less games but we can also see that bonus points are so important for Keepers as shown by Pope, Lloris, Johnstone and Fabianski.
Despite only 2 clean sheets and around 150 shots in the box we see that Meslier and Johnstone have scored 50 points which is very close to the overall score of the highest.
This once again confirms that we shouldn’t waste transfers on our keepers once we have made out decision.
GW9 To GW14:
GK’s STATS 20/21
MCI, TOT, AVL & BUR have been solid and their keepers have earned decent bonus points as well. Pope is a monster in goal and I feel he will continue to have a great season again.
Areola, Fabianski, Meslier & Johnstone have conceded a lot of goals on the last few GW’s.
Finally, an update on my team and future plans:
It’s been a tough season for me but I have stated before and I will state again that I really enjoy FPL and I’d rather finish the season at 4 mln+ knowing I tried my best than give up!
I had a great start after which I slid sharply till around GW7. Since then I’ve been trying to turn it around and this GW I was finally able to turn a corner closing at an overall global rank of 1.38 Mln with a Total of 796 points.
Please find below my team for GW14:
DHILLON’S 11 in GW14
This GW I have triggered my first Wildcard and I am excited to show you where I see my team going ahead:
I have tried to balance my team thinking of the longer term. I will not be using any chip in the DGW 19. I will be using my Free Hit in BGW18.
Using data, fixtures and most importantly my gut I have arrived at this team. The only change I will make is Burke to Eleny once Burke rises to 4.4 mln
I have also shared the players PPG and fixtures below so you can see why I am not against having Spurs assets as compared to the FDR listed above.
WILDCARD TEAM:
DHILLON’s 11 FIRST WILDCARD TEAM
PPG – FDR – BGW – DGW:
DHILLON’s 11 FIRST WILDCARD TEAM
My team formation will switch between a 3-4-3 and a 4-3-3 formation depending upon the fixtures but I am very happy with this team minus not having KDB. I love playing him in my team but with the Spurs assets having better fixtures and better underlying stats despite the recent dip I will be waiting before bringing him back. Also, MCI are currently not keeping up with the 1.5 goal per match ratio which I look for as a team selection.
I’m very excited with this team and I hope I am able to make rank over the next few GW’s.
Before I finish I wanted to thank all of you for voting for me on twitter!
It really means alot and I am grateful for all your interactions and about being part of such a great community!
Thank you so much for reading and I look forward to your constructive feedback as always. I look forward to learning every game week and I wish you all the very best for your FPL teams!
The highest scoring players for GW12 & GW13 were Maddison with 16 points and Holgate with 14 points respectively. None of the premiums have hauled in the last 2 GW’s and the difference between a good and bad GW in the last two has come down to very fine margins.
A dodgy penalty kept Salah Captainers alive in GW13 while KDB and Bruno who were the main choices for the armband let their managers down with no attacking return.
The DGW & BGW fixtures have been announced and we should get further clarity after the EFL cup fixtures post GW14. Planning will be in full flow and we can expect a lot of research in the community over the next few GW’s.
GW14 again seems to be providing us with a lot of Captaincy choices and it will be interesting to see if the Premiums will let down the managers 3 GW’s in a row. Hopefully they won’t!
Please find the league update below:
No. of participating Managers: 307
The league average (Top 5 managers) is: 842.00
Our League leader is: Ashutosh Khemka.
TOP THIRTY LEAGUE TABLE:
EFFECTIVE OWNERSHIP:
CAPTAINCY:
CHIP USE:
We wish our participants all the best!
The league is now closed but managers are still invited to join our chats on Telegram. The link to which is on the registration page of the site.
@FPL_GFCT 