While I was working as a Trader I used to always write a proprietary report for trade ideas called, “Where are we placed?”. The idea was to first analyse where we stand currently and based on that and our forward assumptions (based on historical evidence and future event risks) try and envision the best possible outcomes in the various asset classes.
I have now decided to the do the same here in FPL and I will be publishing this report every 4 to 6 GW’s keeping the above process in mind. In case I can time it with a large fixture swing or Wildcard deadline then I might do that as well.
If you’d like to read the previous edition please press the link below:
Firstly, I have been away from the groups, the community, had to shut down the #GFCT Core research group and I wanted to explain why this was the case.
Last October my father had to get a pacemaker for his heart and when he went for the operation he unfortunately contracted COVID (already an acute asthmatic).
It was a horrible time for the family and we were very close to losing him. I am happy to say that he has recovered very well now but we decided to proactively deal with the family portfolio and real estate due to which I have been preoccupied.
I thank each one of you for understanding and really appreciate all the good wishes I received during this time. I am hopeful of a lot more interaction going forward.
I would like to take this opportunity to thank the following:
Shom Biswas, Chase Blocker, Chris Turner and Gabriel Penaloza. They were instrumental in the GFCT core research group and I will never be able to thank them enough for their help to the group!
I wish them all the best for the future and I will continue to learn a lot from their game play.
Alden Morris, Nitesh Ray & Rajat Aggarwal as they administered the chats exceptionally well and have also been instrumental in helping managers in their biweekly HELP DISCUSSIONS!
They remain an extension of me on the chats and they will continue to run them as they deem fit.
FPL Numbers, FPL Poker Player, FPL Legomane, FPL Corf, Rich FPL & FPL Pup continue to share their research on the chats and I am hopeful I can start publishing FPL Poker PLayer’s research once again on the GFCT website once he finds time to publish.
Secondly, I would like to touch upon the season we are having this year.
At the start of the season if you had told me that I would be comfortable owning Gündogan as my third City asset I would have laughed it off. However, I not only own him but expect a lot from him going forward too.
What’s been important this season is that managers who have been able to adapt have been the real winners. The good thing is that we still have half the season left and those who remain nimble and don’t judge a player by his past performance and price tag will continue to do well with the help of a little bit of luck!
This season we have so many good assets at so many different price ranges that there truly isn’t any one way to come up the ranks. Surprisingly both patient and impatient approaches are working as well with regards to transfers so one can really play one’s own game and this makes it all the more interesting!
Yes, even I’ve had an injury almost every week over the last few GW’s but one has to embrace it with a smile and keep oneself motivated with the most important attribute – Grit!
Moving forward, let’s attack the upcoming GW’s and try and learn from the data what it is that it signals and whether there are any moves we can make that can help us accelerate our overall rank going forward. We intend to continue to do well and make better FPL decision, so lets get right to it!
I will be dividing the analysis between the entire 21 GW’s and the last 8 GW’s. This way we can compare results to reach a more fruitful conclusion seeing recent developments as against seasonal performance.
Let’s start with the TEAM DATA:
GW1 To GW21:
The above table is sorted by total goals for the season.
We have has a total of 544 goals from an xG of 588. This gap has increased as the season has moved forward and we feel this is a healthy development. Infact if this level of xG is sustained we can see more goals going forward.
We had stated that we want attacking assets from teams that score in excess of 60 goals per season (1.5 goals PG) and currently the only teams over the season that are not at that average are: LIV, LEI, MNU, MCI, LEE, CHE, AVL TOT, WHU and EVE.
We can also see that the above table shows that the current teams are significantly outperforming their Big Chances Created – which needs to be monitored as goals could dry up if this outperformance reverts to the mean: LEI, SOU, WBA.
GW14 To GW21:
The above table is sorted by total goals for the season.
LIV, FUL, MNU, TOT are underperforming as per the big chances they create.
SOU has seen a significant drop off recently which might be due to the injures the team has faced along with fewer games played. ARS has really picked up pace with regards to their attack. MNU, AVL, MCI and LIV are miles ahead with regards to Big Chances Created.
SHU, FUL, CRY, NEW, EVE, WBA really need to find some form if they want to start winning games as despite having very average data they are underperforming with the same.
GW1 To GW21:
The above table is sorted by Big Chances conceded.
Looking at the total shots in the box and under performance as compared to the expected goals conceded we can see that both BHA, CHE, WOL have been unlucky.
Having studied the big chances, shots in the box, goals conceded and clean sheets we can say that the following defences have been stronger than others: MCI, ARS, AVL, CHE.
A gentle reminder:
The worst teams give us around 7 to 9 CS’s a season. So anything above 10 CS’s is good and anything above 12/13 was fantastic!
13GW’s out of 38GW’s is 34%.
So before jumping the ship on decent defending FPL assets please realise that most of the time (66% in this case) you will not have a CS even with the best. We are relying on their attacking threat for returns and attacking defenders in good teams cost top dollar!
GW14 To GW21:
The above table is sorted by Big Chances conceded.
NEW, BUR, CRY, WBA, LEE, CHE, FUL are giving away too many big chances and conceding goals as a combination and as a result are unable to keep clean sheets.
MNU, AVL, BUR, CHE, MNU, SOU, TOT have conceded big chances but have somehow not conceded so many goals and have been able to keep clean sheets as well.
MCI, LEI, LIV, EVE, ARS, BHA have been the best defensive teams recently with regards to the data.
Fixture Difficulty Rating – FDR
As I will be publishing this report every 4 to 6 GW’s, I have taken the liberty to divide the FDR below into two halves.
I have used my own metrics along with other FDR’s to reach this. So please be advised to check your own too.
CRY has the standout fixtures over the next few GW’s and their assets are under owned and could provide us with an opportunity.
In the short term (6 GW’s) AVL, SHU, TOT, BHA are expected to have favourable fixtures but going forward (10 GW’s) CHE, SOU, MNU, NEW, EVE are supposed to have the favourable fixtures.
While this is system generated I request everyone to sit and analyze each fixture themselves because I do not agree with the results with regards to a few teams.
PLAYER DATA:
I have changed my manner of shortlisting players in this publication. Instead of finding good stats for players and short listing them, I am shortlisting based on total points for the period and comparing the outperformance to expected points.
This reduces the chances of choosing players who might or might not do well. We are analyzing and choosing from players who are already ticking along well.
Ofcourse we will take a call on upcoming fixtures, rotation, Captaincy options and team form for the final outcome.
FORWARDS:
GW1 To GW21:
The above table is sorted by the max outperformance of total points as against expected points for the highest scorers in the period mentioned.
Kane, Wilson, Vardy, Bamford & DCL, have been the top performers over this season having scored the most goals, bonus points, and points outperformance.
Kane stands out as a player who has also created a lot of chances.
Firmino, Werner, Maupay & Watkins have the biggest underperformers.
GW14 To GW21:
Kane, Lacazette & Tammy are the highest outperformers as against their expected points in recent GW’s.
Watkins & Martial are underperforming their expected stats in recent GW’s. Luckily for both they have a fantastic run coming up where we can see them improve their final product.
Another important observation we have seen is that most strikers have been involved in assists as well especially for Bamford and Watkins which was non-existent earlier in the season.
MIDFIELDERS:
GW1 To GW21:
Son, Maddison, JWP & Salah are miles ahead of anyone with regards to outperformance.
Fernandes, Grealish, Zaha, Barnes & Soucek have all be very good this season and are clinical too.
KDB, Mane, Rashford, Sterling & Neto while scoring well are still showing signs of underperformance as against their expected data.
GW14 To GW21:
It’s fair to say that we have a wide variety of mids performing very well over the last 8 GW’s. Let’s hope this run continues and we continue to have so many good options available to make rank!
DEFENDERS:
GW1 To GW21:
This is a very surprising outcome. Minus Stones there is no outperformer this season amongst Defenders.
I think this is because as compared to the expected points the final outcome has been very poor. We can blame the lack of clean sheets in the earlier part of the season and the conversion of their goal involvement for the same.
Zouma and Dallas are goal scorers where as Robbo, Cresswell and Chilwell are the assisters.
Robbo and Cancelo are way ahead when it comes to creating big chances.
GW14 To GW21:
Stones, Dias, Targett, Azpilicueta, Holding & Cresswell are the most out performing defenders over the last 6 GW’s.
Silva, Dias, Cash, Holding and Cancelo have been the bonus magnets recently.
Robbo, Maguire and Dunk have under performed their expected points in recent weeks.
GOALKEEPERS:
GW1 To GW21:
Martinez and Pope have been the pick of the lot this season despite having played less games but we can also see that bonus points are so important for Keepers as shown by Lloris, Fabianski and Guita.
There is a very tight range between the keeper returns and we can see that despite more CS’s Ederson still has fewer points as compared to Pope & Martinez. A mixture of saves and CS’s is important.
This once again confirms that we shouldn’t waste transfers on our keepers once we have made out decision.
GW14 To GW21:
MCI have been solid. Leno has been very good in recent weeks.
Meslier, Ramsdale, Darlow, Guita have conceded a lot of goals in the last few GW’s.
Finally, an update on my team and future plans:
While it’s been a very average season for me till now I write this as I finally revert back into the top 1 million managers, Woot Woot!
I have used my 2nd Wildcard early in GW20 and my luck to import injury prone players and players who get dropped continues haha! (Kane, Mitchell & Chilwell)
I still have my FH, BB & TC left and I am confident I can still try and aim for the Top 100K by end of the season!
What has gone well for me this season is my calls on Captaincy. It has been a volatile few GW’s due to my rule of only Captaining Premium options but this has been my best run at mid season till now and I’m hoping I continue to get this right.
Below is my updated team for GW22:
I have 1.0 mln in the bank and hopefully if no players are injured I can use the extra funds to get a decent BB team for GW26.
Thank you so much for reading and I look forward to your constructive feedback as always.
I look forward to learning every game week and I wish you all the very best for your FPL teams!
Regards,
Ajit Dhillon.
Follow @DhillonAjitI would also like to thanks FFHUB, FFScout and FPL Tools for the data above used in this publication.
@FPL_GFCT 