Minutes per 2 Goal Opportunities FDR This week I am going to do something a little different with this article. Rather than break down individual matchups with a tactical lens, I will be introducing a new Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR) that I have been working on during the IB. This is completely unfamiliar territory forContinue reading “#FPLMATCHUPS GW 5”

FPL Poker Tables GW5

Thankfully, it didn’t take long for my spreadsheet’s predictions to deliver on last week’s expectations that they will become progressively more accurate with each passing gameweek. The omens are good that after struggling to navigate the choppy waters of the first 4 gameweeks, my spreadsheet’s course is being corrected, and the weather is set fairContinue reading “FPL Poker Tables GW5”


While I was working as a Trader I used to always write a proprietary report for trade ideas called, “Where are we placed?”. The idea was to first analyse where we stand currently and based on that and our forward assumptions (based on historical evidence and future event risks) try and envision the best possibleContinue reading “#FPL – WHERE ARE WE PLACED? (#GW5)”

FPL Matchups GW4: Post Apocalypse

After GW3, I just want to get in to the next GW to be perfectly honest. I am compelled, however, to address the horror in order to heal our collective wounds. Just a reminder, my analysis is through the lens of a coach looking to exploit weaknesses in the opponents. What happened in #GW3 wasContinue reading “FPL Matchups GW4: Post Apocalypse”

FPL Poker Tables GW4

Good news everyone. I have hit upon a genius idea to make my spreadsheets more accurate. Simply add 1 to every team’s predicted score, to take into account the effect of the new handball rule! I have previously cited some grounds for treating my spreadsheet’s predictions with caution at the start of the season (theContinue reading “FPL Poker Tables GW4”

#FPL GFCT – Pragmatic Strategy Report (GW4)

Strategic View The start of the Season 20-21 has seen a boatload of goals, a general lack of clean sheets, and some really unexpected results. Teams and players have moved from the sublime to the pedestrian from Gameweek to Gameweek, and expectations had to have been reset. The new handball rule seems to have increasedContinue reading “#FPL GFCT – Pragmatic Strategy Report (GW4)”

#FPLMatchups GW3

With wildcards flying around, fixtures changing, red cards flashing, injuries mounting, and new signings incoming, it is easy to get lost in the maelstrom of activity in FPL. This is the inevitable result of a geyser of information ejected after GW2. The moment a singularity becomes a dichotomy, and with double the information we haveContinue reading “#FPLMatchups GW3”

FPL Poker Tables GW3

Honestly, as the goals flew in at the weekend at an unprecedented rate, I felt like declaring the weekly exercise of formulating predictions suspended until further notice. Until GW17 perhaps when I’d have sufficient new season data to trust in them more. The astonishingly high conversion rates achieved by goalscorers this season so far isContinue reading “FPL Poker Tables GW3”

#FPLMatchups GW2

So much information to process from GW1, yet it is still very little information to try to glean any sort of matchup pattern. This week, and for the next month or so, I will continue to use last season’s data in combination with what we have learned so far this season. Let’s begin.  WOL vContinue reading “#FPLMatchups GW2”