FPL Poker Tables GW10

Most of the trends identified in my review of rolling data during the last international break were borne out by results in GW9. TOT‘s rapidly improving home attack and defence strength weightings were cited as “bad news for MCI”. BUR were hailed as the other “standout improver” in that department prior to keeping a cleanContinue reading “FPL Poker Tables GW10”

FPL Poker Tables GW9

Last week I conducted a review of rolling data to see what trends have emerged during the early stages of the current season. Many were identified, and I recommend using that blog as a reference point before making any transfers in the near future. Of more immediate relevance to these FPL Poker Tables blogs, however,Continue reading “FPL Poker Tables GW9”

FPL Poker Tables GW8

These blogs are quick to trumpet the successes of previous gameweek’s predictions, so it would be remiss of me to not acknowledge that there wasn’t much to crow about last week at all. Having been blown off course a little by results in GW6, my spreadsheet floundered again in GW7, being bettered by bookmakers oddsContinue reading “FPL Poker Tables GW8”

FPL Poker Tables GW7

My spreadsheet predictions were blown off course a little last week by the failure of the MUN vs CHE fixture to serve up any goals, which increased its average mean absolute error (MAE) for predicted goals to 0.90. As well as giving them a rare victory over my spreadsheets, the relative shortage of goals inContinue reading “FPL Poker Tables GW7”

“One person’s data is another person’s noise.”

So after the most unpredictable start to any season that I can remember and despite my love of data I find myself writing an article about being careful not to trust data implicitly or equally form a narrative from it that simply suits your own purpose and I’m then trying to sell it. Let’s lookContinue reading ““One person’s data is another person’s noise.””

FPL Poker Tables GW5

Thankfully, it didn’t take long for my spreadsheet’s predictions to deliver on last week’s expectations that they will become progressively more accurate with each passing gameweek. The omens are good that after struggling to navigate the choppy waters of the first 4 gameweeks, my spreadsheet’s course is being corrected, and the weather is set fairContinue reading “FPL Poker Tables GW5”

FPL Poker Tables GW4

Good news everyone. I have hit upon a genius idea to make my spreadsheets more accurate. Simply add 1 to every team’s predicted score, to take into account the effect of the new handball rule! I have previously cited some grounds for treating my spreadsheet’s predictions with caution at the start of the season (theContinue reading “FPL Poker Tables GW4”

FPL Poker Tables GW3

Honestly, as the goals flew in at the weekend at an unprecedented rate, I felt like declaring the weekly exercise of formulating predictions suspended until further notice. Until GW17 perhaps when I’d have sufficient new season data to trust in them more. The astonishingly high conversion rates achieved by goalscorers this season so far isContinue reading “FPL Poker Tables GW3”

FPL Poker Tables GW2

Nothing makes bigger fools out of us than football results can! So much for the shortage of goals and scarcity of clean sheets forecast last week by my GW1 tables. In fact, there were more clean sheets than there normally are when we have a full complement of fixtures! And having predicted a near cleanContinue reading “FPL Poker Tables GW2”