Spring review of rolling data

The current International Break feels like the first chance I’ve had since November to take fresh stock of my spreadsheet’s rolling data, and see what interesting trends have emerged in the meantime. First off, a quick reminder to you that I ran parallel models last season to test which number of gameweeks provided my spreadsheetContinue reading “Spring review of rolling data”

FPL Poker Tables GW12/13/14

It’s that time of year again when managers are advised to fasten their seatbelts, and hold on tight, as the FPL schedule is about to become hectic. Next week sees the first set of midweek fixtures this season, which comprise the sandwich filling of 3 gameweek deadlines in 9 days. Consequently, I’ll not have timeContinue reading “FPL Poker Tables GW12/13/14”

FPL Poker Tables GW11

Last gameweek was another frustrating one for my spreadsheets, even though predictions performed favourably in comparison with other better known predictive models and algorithms. My spreadsheet proved more accurate than fivethirtyeight.com for both match result predictions (see appendix I) and correct score forecasts (see appendix II). It also performed better than “the world’s most powerfulContinue reading “FPL Poker Tables GW11”

FPL Poker Tables GW10

Most of the trends identified in my review of rolling data during the last international break were borne out by results in GW9. TOT‘s rapidly improving home attack and defence strength weightings were cited as “bad news for MCI”. BUR were hailed as the other “standout improver” in that department prior to keeping a cleanContinue reading “FPL Poker Tables GW10”

FPL Poker Tables GW9

Last week I conducted a review of rolling data to see what trends have emerged during the early stages of the current season. Many were identified, and I recommend using that blog as a reference point before making any transfers in the near future. Of more immediate relevance to these FPL Poker Tables blogs, however,Continue reading “FPL Poker Tables GW9”

FPL Poker Tables GW8

These blogs are quick to trumpet the successes of previous gameweek’s predictions, so it would be remiss of me to not acknowledge that there wasn’t much to crow about last week at all. Having been blown off course a little by results in GW6, my spreadsheet floundered again in GW7, being bettered by bookmakers oddsContinue reading “FPL Poker Tables GW8”

FPL Poker Tables GW7

My spreadsheet predictions were blown off course a little last week by the failure of the MUN vs CHE fixture to serve up any goals, which increased its average mean absolute error (MAE) for predicted goals to 0.90. As well as giving them a rare victory over my spreadsheets, the relative shortage of goals inContinue reading “FPL Poker Tables GW7”

FPL Poker Tables GW5

Thankfully, it didn’t take long for my spreadsheet’s predictions to deliver on last week’s expectations that they will become progressively more accurate with each passing gameweek. The omens are good that after struggling to navigate the choppy waters of the first 4 gameweeks, my spreadsheet’s course is being corrected, and the weather is set fairContinue reading “FPL Poker Tables GW5”

FPL Poker Tables GW4

Good news everyone. I have hit upon a genius idea to make my spreadsheets more accurate. Simply add 1 to every team’s predicted score, to take into account the effect of the new handball rule! I have previously cited some grounds for treating my spreadsheet’s predictions with caution at the start of the season (theContinue reading “FPL Poker Tables GW4”