#FPL – WHERE ARE WE PLACED? (#GW15 & ahead)

WHERE ARE WE PLACED

While I was working as a Trader I used to always write a proprietary report for trade ideas called, “Where are we placed?”. The idea was to first analyse where we stand currently and based on that and our forward assumptions (based on historical evidence and future event risks) try and envision the best possible outcomes in the various asset classes.

I have now decided to the do the same here in FPL and I will be publishing this report every 4 to 6 GW’s keeping the above process in mind. In case I can time it with a large fixture swing or Wildcard deadline then I might do that as well.

If you’d like to read the previous edition please press the link below:

It’s been a fantastic season so far with a lot of exciting football being played. Some huge scores have been seen and teams that get thrashed one week go and thrash other bigger teams the next week.

Home and away advantage still hasn’t mattered much but the amount of goals has definitely dropped as can be seen from the xG for all teams in the last 6 GW’s has been 179 but goals scored are only 154. At the same time not many teams are keeping clean sheets either and we are getting goals both ways even in a low scoring game.

FPL wise its been a very exciting season with most of the managers I know doing really well. Well done!

Personally, I haven’t been able to catch the wind beneath my sails but I am looking forward to learning where I went wrong so I never repeat those mistakes again.

OWN YOUR OUTCOMES:

Expert from – Where are we placed #GW9

One should also notice that over the next 8 GW’s both these teams have the best fixtures with Liverpool actually signalling the best defensive fixtures as well.

LIV UPCOMING FIXTURES: LEI, BHA, WOL, FUL, TOT, CRY, WBA, NEW

Minus LEI & TOT their fixtures look extremely promising for clean sheets.

The community as a whole ignored LEI’s make shift defence recently with all the injuries and they have kept 2 out of 3 CS’s.

With the following line up by GW10/GW11:

TAA – Fabihno – Matip – Robbo with Thiago ahead of them.

I feel one should not fall for the Twitter bashing in this case. This is a solid line up and we can expect CS points apart from attacking returns till GW16.

This will be my contrarian play in the upcoming weeks and with my WC still intact I am willing to risk 5 GW’s of a LIV defensive double up!

While most are running away from their defensive assets, those with risk appetite might do very well picking one if not two defensive assets till GW16.

Fortune favours the brave!

This was my opinion in the last report. But what did I end up doing?

I did not have faith in my own contrarian call. In fact I got scared of the EO of Chelsea defenders and the damage they were doing to my overall rank and ended up getting them into my team for a hit!

What was the result from GW9 to GW14?

Robertson & Matip, the two assets I wanted to own have gone on to be the highest scoring defensive assets in this period with 37 and 30 points respectively.

Lesson Learnt:

“Dreams and hope won’t get you anywhere; only actions do; actions create results.

– Anas Hamsari.

So I’ve decided to make myself a promise:

I will never play fearfully again, never!

So let’s attack the upcoming GW’s and try and learn from the data what it is that it signals and whether there are any moves we can make that can help us accelerate our overall rank going forward. We intend to continue to do well and make better FPL decision, so lets get right to it!

I will be dividing the analysis between the entire 14 GW’s and the last 6 GW’s. This way we can compare results to reach a more fruitful conclusion seeing recent developments as against seasonal performance.

Let’s start with the TEAM DATA:

GW1 To GW14:

ATTACKING STATS 20/21

The above table is total goals for the season.

We have has a total of 399 goals from an xG of 405. This gap has reduced as the season has moved forward and we feel this is a healthy development.

We had stated that we want attacking assets from teams that score in excess of 60 goals per season (1.5 goals PG) and currently the only teams over the season that are not at that average are: MCI, CRY, NEW, BHA, WOL, FUL, ARS, WBA, BUR, SHU.

We can also see that the above table shows that the current teams are significantly outperforming their Big Chances Created – which needs to be monitored as goals could dry up if this outperformance reverts to the mean: LEI, SOU.

Teams that are performing as per their data: LIV, TOT, CHE, AVL, LEE, WHU, MNU.

GW9 To GW14:

ATTACKING STATS 20/21

The above table is total goals.

MCI, SHU, BHA, CHE are significantly underperforming as per the big chances they create.

TOT is the stand out when it comes to the drop in the table with the lowest SITB, and averaging on 1 big chance per game with 1 goal per game. Please be mindful that they had the toughest run of fixtures in this period being analyzed.

BUR, BHA, WBA, SHU & ARS really need to find some form if they want to start winning games as despite having very average data they are underperforming with the same.

GW1 To GW14:

Defensive Stats for EPL 20/21

The above table is sorted by Big Chances conceded.

Looking at the total shots in the box and under performance as compared to the expected goals conceded we can see that both BHA, CHE have been unlucky.

Having studied the big chances, shots in the box, goals conceded and clean sheets we can say that the following defences have been stronger than others: MCI, AVL, CHE, MNU, LEI, LIV, TOT.

A gentle reminder:

The worst teams give us around 7 to 9 CS’s a season. So anything above 10 CS’s is good and anything above 12/13 was fantastic!

13GW’s out of 38GW’s is 34%.

So before jumping the ship on decent defending FPL assets please realise that most of the time (66% in this case) you will not have a CS even with the best. We are relying on their attacking threat for returns and attacking defenders in good teams cost top dollar!

GW9 To GW14:

Defensive Stats for EPL 20/21

The above table is sorted by Big Chances conceded.

NEW, WOL, CRY, WBA, SHU, LEE are giving away too many big chances and conceding goals as a combination and as a result are unable to keep clean sheets.

MNU, LEI & LIV has conceded big chances but have somehow not conceded so many goals and have been able to keep clean sheets as well.

CHE, MCI, TOT, AVL have been the best defensive teams recently with regards to the data.

Fixture Difficulty Rating – FDR

As I will be publishing this report every 4 to 6 GW’s, I have taken the liberty to divide the FDR below into two halves.

I have used my own metrics along with other FDR’s to reach this. So please be advised to check your own too.

FDR RANKING FOR COMING GW’s

GW15 TO 17 leading up to the BGW shows that BUR, TOT, LIV have the best fixtures where as CHE, MCI, NEW on the tougher side.

I have not added GW18 in this FDR as it is a blank gameweek.

GW19 To GW25 we see that MNU, WHU, LEE have the best fixtures while TOT, SHU, NEW seem to be on the tougher side.

While this is system generated I request everyone to sit and analyze each fixture themselves because I do not agree with the results with regards to a few teams. For example: TOT.

PLAYER DATA:

I have changed my manner of shortlisting players in this publication. Instead of finding good stats for players and short listing them, I am shortlisting based on total points for the period and comparing the outperformance to expected points.

This reduces the chances of choosing players who might or might not do well. We are analyzing and choosing from players who are already ticking along well.

Ofcourse we will take a call on upcoming fixtures, rotation, Captaincy options and team form for the final outcome.

FORWARDS:

GW1 To GW14:

FWD DATA 20/21

The above table is sorted by the max outperformance of total points as against expected points for the 12 highest scorers in the period mentioned.

Kane, Wilson, Vardy & DCL have been the top performers over this season having scored the most goals, bonus points, and points outperformance.

Kane stands out as a player who has also created a lot of chances.

Richarlison, Werner & Watkins have the biggest underperformers.

Adams and Bamford are ticking along and where Bamford makes up in goals, Adams has made up in Assists and creating chances.

GW9 To GW14:

FWD DATA 20/21

Abraham, Kane, Vardy & Wilson are the highest outperformers as against their expected points in recent GW’s.

DCL, Firmino, Adams have been very good and are performing as per expectations.

Bamford, Wood & Martial are underperforming their expected stats in recent GW’s. Luckily for all three they have a fantastic run coming up where we can see them improve their outcome.

MIDFIELDERS:

GW1 To GW14:

MIDS STATS 20/21

Son is miles ahead of anyone with regards to outperformance and while most expect his form to revert it goes without saying that he has earned his high ownership this season!

Salah, Fernandes, JWP, Zaha, Grealish have all be very good this season and are outperforming too.

Neto & Bowen have posted great number and are ticking along very well this season for their price tags one should definitely take a punt on them from time to time.

KDB, Mane, Rashford & Sterling while scoring well are still showing signs of underperformance as against their expected data.

GW9 To GW14:

MIDS STATS 20/21

Salah, Son & Fernandes – the three highest PPG players in the midfield are at the top of the table and continue to be great FPL assets.

Neto, Soucek & Maddison are doing extremely well for their price tag and should be used from time to time.

KDB, Mahrez, El Ghazi & Rashford despite doing well are showing a lot of under performance in the last 6 GW’s.

DEFENDERS:

GW1 To GW14:

DEF STATS 20/21

This is a very surprising outcome. Minus Zouma there is no outperformer this season amongst Defenders.

I think this is because as compared to the expected points the final outcome has been very poor. We can blame the lack of clean sheets and the conversion of their goal involvement for the same.

Vestergaard, Zouma and Dallas are goal scorers where as Robbo, Cresswell and Chilwell are the assisters.

GW9 To GW14:

DEF STATS 20/21

Matip, Robbo, Stones and Taylor are the most out performing defenders over the last 6 GW’s.

Dias has the most underperformance as against expected as he did nothing with his 2 big chances and has had no creative involvement as well. The eye test shows he has been close to scoring and with him being the backbone of a very solid MCI defence I would not overlook him despite this.

Ogbonna, Lindelof, Dallas are ticking along well and all three have fantastic fixtures till GW25.

GOALKEEPERS:

GW1 To GW14:

GK’s STATS 20/21

Martinez has the pick of the lot this season despite having played two less games but we can also see that bonus points are so important for Keepers as shown by Pope, Lloris, Johnstone and Fabianski.

Despite only 2 clean sheets and around 150 shots in the box we see that Meslier and Johnstone have scored 50 points which is very close to the overall score of the highest.

This once again confirms that we shouldn’t waste transfers on our keepers once we have made out decision.

GW9 To GW14:

GK’s STATS 20/21

MCI, TOT, AVL & BUR have been solid and their keepers have earned decent bonus points as well. Pope is a monster in goal and I feel he will continue to have a great season again.

Areola, Fabianski, Meslier & Johnstone have conceded a lot of goals on the last few GW’s.

Finally, an update on my team and future plans:

It’s been a tough season for me but I have stated before and I will state again that I really enjoy FPL and I’d rather finish the season at 4 mln+ knowing I tried my best than give up!

I had a great start after which I slid sharply till around GW7. Since then I’ve been trying to turn it around and this GW I was finally able to turn a corner closing at an overall global rank of 1.38 Mln with a Total of 796 points.

Please find below my team for GW14:

DHILLON’S 11 in GW14

This GW I have triggered my first Wildcard and I am excited to show you where I see my team going ahead:

I have tried to balance my team thinking of the longer term. I will not be using any chip in the DGW 19. I will be using my Free Hit in BGW18.

Using data, fixtures and most importantly my gut I have arrived at this team. The only change I will make is Burke to Eleny once Burke rises to 4.4 mln

I have also shared the players PPG and fixtures below so you can see why I am not against having Spurs assets as compared to the FDR listed above.

WILDCARD TEAM:

DHILLON’s 11 FIRST WILDCARD TEAM
PPG – FDR – BGW – DGW:
DHILLON’s 11 FIRST WILDCARD TEAM

My team formation will switch between a 3-4-3 and a 4-3-3 formation depending upon the fixtures but I am very happy with this team minus not having KDB. I love playing him in my team but with the Spurs assets having better fixtures and better underlying stats despite the recent dip I will be waiting before bringing him back. Also, MCI are currently not keeping up with the 1.5 goal per match ratio which I look for as a team selection.

I’m very excited with this team and I hope I am able to make rank over the next few GW’s.

Before I finish I wanted to thank all of you for voting for me on twitter!

It really means alot and I am grateful for all your interactions and about being part of such a great community!

Thank you so much for reading and I look forward to your constructive feedback as always. I look forward to learning every game week and I wish you all the very best for your FPL teams!

Regards,

Ajit Dhillon.

I would also like to thanks FFHUB, FFScout and FPL Tools for the data above used in this publication.

Published by Ajit Dhillon

Living life to the fullest! A father to Ahaan and husband to Ayesha. Creator of the GFCT Project, Chats & Mini Leagues! A financial market participant by profession who absolutely loves sports! I'm a die hard Real Madrid Fan who loves playing Fantasy Football!

3 thoughts on “#FPL – WHERE ARE WE PLACED? (#GW15 & ahead)

  1. The first time I read your analytical approach was the GW 9 thoughts. I learn’t a lot!!! So far I had just worked with value for money, combined with FPL FDR. After your LESSON I have tried to develop a more advanced approach and having spent a lot of time I feel that I have a decent working model, which really has improved my performance in our little League

    Your new analysis confirms that I am on the right track, but your analytical reports will always be valued

    GREAT

    THANKS A LOT AND ENJOY THE HOLIDAYS

    Gunder

    Like

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