#FPL GFCT – Pragmatic Strategy Report Pre-GW11

Strategic View

Come gather ‘round, people, wherever you roam, or whichever your fancied formation might be; because the times, they are ’changing’. Here’s a quick chronicle of those changing times from an FPL perspective.

Let’s go with our normal three-question back and across:

  1. Let’s start about the team to think about for the next few: And the team is the Pep-rotated mavericks of Man City. The form is patch, the class is unmistakable – and [FUL, MUN, WBA, SOU, NEW] must be too juicy a fixture sequence to pass, isn’t it? Especially because the first of that crazy run, against BUR, gave MCI a super-comfortable 5-0 win, literally playing at walking pace. So KDB? And Sterling? Oh, Mahrez? Foden? And after some expensive flops, MCI has found a competent defender to play along with Laporte in Dias. This is a key decision. Play well, my FPL friends.
  2. The player to think about is Bruno Fernandes: The Red side of Manchester is having an… uh… middling season, one would say? But Bruno is in roaring form. 17, 11 and 10 in his last three. Five (5) double-digit hauls in the last 10 GWs. Is he your template breaker? If he isn’t, you must have a good reason for that.
  3. The structural question to think about: Have you noticed that defences are tightening up? Clean Sheets are making their presence felt, and the dreaded 0-0 is not as much of a pipe dream as it seemed a while back? The Defenders are back, baby. We are watching around 6-8 clean sheets every GW, and that is good for the heavy-in-the-back brigade.

And to end the Strategic talk, here’s your favourite FPL 101 saying:

You cannot have them all. Don’t FOMO.


Tactical View

There are some interesting Template breakers –

  1. Defence: Kilman and Mitchell, having seemingly lost their places in their teams, are in danger of being thrown out of the template team unless they regain their first-team slot. Robertson and the injured TAA both have ownership around the lane teens, and one player gaining solid ground is Reese James, of Chelsea.
  1. Midfield: Salah is the obvious one. He indeed is more highly owned than Rodriguez and Jota, but due to untenable team structures, is not included. He will be back, as will be KDB, hovering just around the 20% ownership. Ward-Prowse is a midprice enabler who is seeing some template-breaking movement.
  1. Forwards: Vardy, due to the easy upcoming fixture run, and Wilson, due to some excellent form, are gaining teams. But the top three owned players, DCL (the highest owned player in the game), Kane, and Bamford, are in a league of their own.


Operational View

1. Goalkeepers – don’t waste transfers here, but for those desperate or on WC…

A. Edouard Mendy: See Chilwell stats below. Best defense in the league over the last 4, but their fixtures are peppered. Great value at 5.2.

B. Hugo Lloris: Spurs have registered 4 clean sheets in their last 5 and 2 of them were back to back against MCI and CHE. They have the 4th lowest xGC over the last 4, and Lloris has registered max bonus points in the difficult fixtures. While there is a high chance TOT won’t continue to keep clean sheets, it’s more unlikely they will be blown out. Lloris’ high ceiling with bonus points in tough fixtures is a nice way to go against the grain.

C. Emiliano Martinez: Will miss the NEW match but it may still occur in GW 11 so don’t bail on him yet. He still has a nice run of fixtures.

2. Defenders

A. Joao Cancelo: MCI have the 3rd best xGC of 2.89 over the last 4GWs along with conceding only 1 big chance per game. On the other end, Cancelo has the 3rd highest xGI (1.06) over the last 4 games and he missed one of those games.

B. Harry Maguire: United’s xGC of 2.53 over the last 4 matches is 2nd best in the league. They have also conceded joint fewest big chances over the last 4 (2). I’ve gone with Maguire over Telles here because he has the most shots in the box of any defender over the last 4 (7).

C. Ben Chilwell: Chilwell has reached premium defender price at 6.2M. And rightly so as the best defender for FPL this season. Since starting, Chilwell has yet to blank this season. If I would have captained Chilwell all season, I would have 30 more points than I have now. And that includes captaining him in the first 3 GWs he didn’t play. Insane production and CHE have conceded the fewest big chances (2) and have the lowest xGC 1.48 in the past 4 games.

3. Midfielders

A. Bruno Fernandes: Over the last 4 GWs, no player has created more big chances than Bruno (4), and he has the highest xG among midfielders (2.25). He also has 8 key passes, 7 shots inside the box and 7 shots on target in those 4 games. Expected to be involved in 1 goal every game (xGI 1.0/90).

B. Diogo Jota: Jota has scored 3 goals in 4 starts and 1 goal off the bench in Liverpool’s last 5 matches. From GWs 6-10 Jota has had 4 big chances, created 2 big chances for others, and has 9 shots inside the box.

C. Kevin DeBruyne: Playing FUL and WBA home in 2 of the next 3 GWS makes it difficult going without KDB. 4 assists in the last 4 is more than any other player, and he is 2nd with 3 big chances created. After putting 5 past Burnley, this could be the prime time to invest as MCI form changes.

4. Forwards

A. Patrick Bamford: That stat king of the season. In the past 4 GWs Bamford has the most big chances (7), the most shots inside the box (16), the 3rd most shots on target (6), the highest xG 3.96, and the 3rd highest xGI (4.01).

B. Jamie Vardy: Vardy has the highest xGI in the league in the last 4 GWs (4.17). He was unlucky not to haul against Liverpool, but he will be looking to bounce back with good fixtures ahead. He has the most shots on target in the last 4 (8), and the 2nd highest xG (3.74).

C. Ollie Watkins: While Watkins may be off penalties for the foreseeable future, his stats still stand out. 5 BC, 5 key passes, 9 shots in the box, 3.34 xG and 4.05xGI over the last 4 is nothing to scoff at. Specially for his price.


Our Punts

  1. Shom Biswas punts: Targett; Bowen; Aguero
  2. Rajat Aggarwal punts – Reguilón, Harrison, Cavani
  3. Chase Blocker punts – Justin, Mahrez, Welbeck
  4. Chris Turner punts – Dias, Raphinha, Jesus
  5. Martin Coleman – Dias, Mahrez, Jesus
  6. Alden Morris – Dias, Raphina, Adams
  7. Gabriel Penaloza – Castagne, Sterling (to respond to benching), Antonio
  8. Nitesh Ray – Dias, Mahrez, Adams
  9. Ajit Dhillon – Dias, Mahrez, Jesus

I hope you all enjoyed this edition and you can expect this biweekly report going forward too.


GFCT Team.

Shom Biswas

Ajit Dhillon

Gabriel Penaloza

Chase Blocker

Chris Turner

Martin Coleman

Nitesh Ray

Alden Morris

Rajat Aggarwal

Published by Ajit Dhillon

Living life to the fullest! A father to Ahaan and husband to Ayesha. Creator of the GFCT Project, Chats & Mini Leagues! A financial market participant by profession who absolutely loves sports! I'm a die hard Real Madrid Fan who loves playing Fantasy Football!

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