#FPL – WHERE ARE WE PLACED? (#GW9)

While I was working as a Trader I used to always write a proprietary report for trade ideas called, “Where are we placed?”. The idea was to first analyse where we stand currently and based on that and our forward assumptions (based on historical evidence and future event risks) try and envision the best possible outcomes in the various asset classes.

I have now decided to the do the same here in FPL and I will be publishing this report every 4 to 6 GW’s keeping the above process in mind. In case I can time it with a large fixture swing or Wildcard deadline then I might do that as well.

If you’d like to read the previous edition please press the link below:

It has been a very enjoyable season so far and while we still have a long way to go before we can confidently state that the data is helping us make better decision or that the data is in sync with the team’s performances we will never the less try our best to make the best possible decisions through the process we have set out for ourselves.

To start with I would like to discuss that the community was in agreement that the number of goals (144) as against the total xG (118) in the first 4 GW’s was unsustainable. The penalty rules were also requested to be relaxed via VAR and we have seen a steady yet healthy reduction of goals as against the data. In the last 4 GW’s we have had a total of 101 goals from an xG from 107.

As stated previously we will stick with the understanding that the over or under performance of a team vis-a-vis the data will remain unsustainable and as far as the over or under performance of a player vis-a-vis the data can remain sustainable and will be seen as an indication of the players form. A large outperformance singling that the player is in clinical form and the outperformance is due to exceptional finishing.

We will now be entering the most interesting yet compact part of the season and the International Break has led to a lot of heart break and anger within the community about our players getting injured such that a few FT’s will not be enough to solve our team’s problems.

For this I share below something personal:

From book “The Buddha in me, the Buddha in you” by David Hare.

“When we are upset, it’s easy to blame others. However, the true cause of our feelings is within us. For example, imagine yourself as a glass of water. Now, imagine past negative experiences as sediment at the bottom of the your glass. Next, think of others as spoons. When one stirs, the sediment clouds your water. It may appear that the spoon caused the water to cloud – but if there were no sediment, the water would remain clear no matter what. The key, then, is to identify our sediment and actively work to remove it.”

– Josei Toda

Also,

“True happiness is not the absence of suffering; you cannot have day after day of clear skies. True happiness lies in building a self that stands dignified and indomitable like a great palace – on all days, even when it is raining, snowing or stormy.”

– Daisaku Ikeda

Take from these two paragraphs what you will but they always help me personally to look at each problem as an opportunity to improve myself!

So let’s attack the upcoming GW’s and try and learn from the data what it is that it signals and whether there are any moves we can make that can help us accelerate our overall rank going forward. We intend to continue to do well and make better FPL decision, so lets get right to it!

I will be dividing the analysis between the entire 8 GW’s and the last 4 GW’s. This way we can compare results to reach a more fruitful conclusion seeing recent developments as against seasonal performance.

Let’s start with the TEAM DATA:

GW1 To GW8:

The above table is sorted by xG (Expected Goals).

We have has a total of 245 goals from an xG of 226. This gap has reduced as the season has moved forward and we feel this is a healthy development.

We had stated that we want attacking assets from teams that score in excess of 60 goals per season (1.5 goals PG) and currently the only teams over the season that are not at that average are: FUL, ARS, SHU, WOL, NEW, BUR, WBA.

We can also see that the above table shows that the current teams are significantly outperforming their Big Chances Created – which needs to be monitored as goals could dry up if this outperformance reverts to the mean: LEI, CHE, SOU, WHU.

Teams that are performing as per their data: LIV, TOT, MCI, AVL, CRY, WOL

GW5 To GW8:

The above table is sorted by xG (Expected Goals).

We have has a total of 101 goals from an xG of 107.

From the above table we can see the stand out drop has been by EVE. BHA has come down the table too. TOT haven’t fallen as much but have given up their spot at the top.

We can also see that the above table shows that the current teams are significantly outperforming their Big Chances Created – which needs to be monitored as goals could dry up if this outperformance reverts to the mean: CHE, WHU & SOU.

MCI & AVL are the teams that have shown improvement despite volatile results over the last 4 weeks as compared to the entire season.

GW1 To GW8:

The above table is sorted by Big Chances conceded.

Looking at the total shots, shots in the box and under performance as compared to the expected goals conceded we can see that both BHA & LIV have been unlucky.

Having studied the big chances, shots, shots in the box, goals conceded and clean sheets we can say that the following defences have been stronger than others: MCI, WOL, LEI, AVL, SOU, WHU, CHE.

A gentle reminder:

Last time we had analysed the seasonal data and seen that even the worst teams give us around 7 to 9 CS’s a season. So anything above 10 CS’s is good and anything above 12/13 was fantastic!

13GW’s out of 38GW’s is 34%.

So before jumping the ship on decent defending FPL assets please realise that most of the time (66% in this case) you will not have a CS even with the best. We are relying on their attacking threat for returns and attacking defenders in good teams cost top dollar!

GW5 To GW8:

The above table is sorted by Big Chances conceded.

Both FUL & LEI have been lucky not to concede more in the last 4 GW’s. LEE, EVE, SHU have given way too many big chances and this has happened despite Leeds giving a lot less shots in the box. Not a very healthy sign.

MNU and MCI are the two standout performers over the last 4 GW’s and with an improvement in their fixtures going forward should provide good assets for the same.

Fixture Difficulty Rating – FDR

As I will be publishing this report every 4 to 6 GW’s, I have taken the liberty to divide the FDR below into two halves. The first one is for the next 4 GW’s and the second one is for the next 8 GW’s.

I have used my own metrics along with other FDR’s to reach this. So please be advised to check your own too.

City & Liverpool remain fixture proof for me and should continue to do well and provide Captaincy assets week in and week out.

One should also notice that over the next 8 GW’s both these teams have the best fixtures with Liverpool actually signalling the best defensive fixtures as well.

LIV UPCOMING FIXTURES: LEI, BHA, WOL, FUL, TOT, CRY, WBA, NEW

Minus LEI & TOT their fixtures look extremely promising for clean sheets.

The community as a whole ignored LEI’s make shift defence recently with all the injuries and they have kept 2 out of 3 CS’s.

With the following line up by GW10/GW11:

TAA – Fabihno – Matip – Robbo with Thiago ahead of them.

I feel one should not fall for the Twitter bashing in this case. This is a solid line up and we can expect CS points apart from attacking returns till GW16.

This will be my contrarian play in the upcoming weeks and with my WC still intact I am willing to risk 5 GW’s of a LIV defensive double up!

While most are running away from their defensive assets, those with risk appetite might do very well picking one if not two defensive assets till GW16.

Fortune favours the brave!

AVL has an excellent run as well and along with the MCI will have a DGW later on in the season.

EVE has great fixtures till GW12/13 but then difficulty rises significantly where as WOL, TOT, FUL, BUR, SOU are expected to have a much tougher fixture schedule than they have currently enjoyed.

PLAYER DATA:

FORWARDS:

GW1 To GW8:

Sorted by xG we can see that Vardy and Kane top the table but Kane having created 8 big chances has shown sublime overall performance.

While looking at the difference between actual points and expected it shows that Kane, DCL, Bamford are outperforming and have been clinical.

Maupay and Mitrovic are performing below expectations.

GW5 To GW8:

Sorted by xG we can see that Vardy and Bamford are top of the table and have also received the maximum big chances.

Werner, Kane and Adams are outperforming in the short term where as Mitrovic remains the stand out under achiever.

A lot of managers will be shifting from Kane to Werner or Vardy due to the fixture swing and the above data suggests that with the short term form – that is not a bad move.

I will personally be keeping Kane for now and I’ll make a decision after GW12 minus any injury.

MIDFIELDERS:

GW1 To GW8:

Sorted by xG we can see that Salah and Son are on top of the table. While all top 5 are creating chances as well it is Grealish who stands out with 6 big chances created.

While looking at the difference between actual points and expected it shows that Son and Grealish have been clinical.

KDB, Tielemans, Barnes & Mane have been underperforming.

GW5 To GW8:

While Salah remain above anyone in the xG department it is Grealish and Zaha that have created the big chances in the last 4 GW’s.

In the last 4 GW’s we have seen outperformance by Fernandes and Son.

Salah, Grealish, Mane, Lookman and Podence have underperformed as compared to what was expected of them.

DEFENDERS:

GW1 To GW8:

The above table is sorted by Expected Attacking Involvement returns.

Apart from Chilwell, Mings and Zouma we are noticing under performance across the board.

We continue to promote patience with your defensive assets especially if they are premium assets from LIV, MCI, MNU, LEI – teams that have historically kept more than 10 CS’s.

Chilwell is the standout pick as he has accumulated these numbers with only 5 games as compared to the others at 7 or 8 games.

GW5 To GW8:

We notice overall underperformance once again as compared to the expected points for all top defenders as sorted by the expected attacking involvement returns.

We have also noticed that despite giving decent points returns most have lost out on bonus points despite attacking returns and clean sheets. Signalling that their team attacking assets must be the ones earning higher BPS.

We have already discussed CS’s above so please stay patient with your players especially if they are listed above. They will get you attacking returns if not CS’s.

GOALKEEPERS:

GW1 To GW8:

The above table is sorted by total FPL points.

We can see that Fabianski has the highest points despite having one less CS than others. Goes to show how precious BPS is for goalkeepers.

Martinez is actually outperforming while underperformance has been noticed with Leno, Meslier, Lloris & Darlow.

Darlow is miles ahead of any keeper as far as total saves go.

GW5 To GW8:

Over the last 4 GW’s we can see that all the keepers have almost the same expected points. However, despite an extra CS we see that McCarthy less points than Fabianski due to BPS.

Looking at team defensive data, fixtures and players data any of Martinez, Fabianski, Scheichel could be good picks going forward.

Finally, an update on my team and future plans:

I have been quite satisfied with my team. Please find the stats for my team below:

I am sticking with the simple decisions I had made at the start of the season for now which were – to maintain a balanced team, preferably Captain the premium options, take risks despite Covid etc while I still have my Wildcard.

I have some how managed to score 154 points from my Captaincy calls – this is what I feel has saved my season so far.

The above tables show that my defensive assets have been underperforming expectations. My mids and forwards have been ticking along fine.

I have survived benching KDB & James Rodriguez and will now be benching Salah for the next 2 GW’s (If he is out that long). I continue to have faith in the team I have built and have shared future transfers below.

I do not plan to use my Wildcard currently even though my team has been hit by possible injuries and covid cases. I have a playing bench currently that is expected to get the 2/3 points when needed.

I have gone early with my transfer for GW9. Keeping in mind the upcoming fixtures and the price points I want to maintain for my team I am happy with my decision.

TAA -> Robertson

This will be my team for GW9. If Salah does not make it then Ayling will come off the bench for him. I still expect Robbo and Coady to play.

FUTURES TRANSFERS EXPECTATIONS/PLANS:

GW10 – COADY -> DIAS

GW11 – KEANE -> MATIP (LIV DEFENSIVE DOUBLE UP – CONTRARIAN PLAY)

GW12 – J.RODRIGUEZ -> GREALISH

GW13 – BURKE -> ELENY

These transfers are just an indication of the direction I would like to take. If I do go ahead with these then this is the what the team will look like by the next time I update this report:

(WILDCARD STILL TENTATIVE FOR POST GW15)

A 4-3-3 formation with 3 premium assets as my Captaincy choices most weeks. LIV/MCI/AVL of prime focus till the GW16 WC deadline.

As always, my decisions will be dependent on other research being shared by our GFCT Core team as well – 1. Pragmatic Strategy which is spearheaded by Shom Biswas aka BaganboyFPL, 2. FPL Matchups which is written by Gabriel Penaloza aka FPLLens, 3. The Poker Player Spreadsheets which is written by Martin Coleman aka FPL Poker Player and 4. GFCT Q&A videos which is spearheaded by Chase Blocker aka BloccFPL.

If you are on your Wildcard or are still deciding on how to attack the upcoming GW’s then please do use these research publications ahead of GW9 & GW10 on our blog!

Thank you so much for reading and I look forward to your constructive feedback as always. I look forward to learning every gameweek and I wish you all the very best for your FPL teams!

Regards,

Ajit Dhillon.

Follow @DhillonAjit

I would also like to thanks FFHUB, FFScout and FPL Tools for the data above used in this publication.