FPL Mariner musing’s: Forwards

I will be pleased when this preseason is done if I’m honest. Every day there are more announcements of new players resulting in us having to go back to the drawing board. Don’t get me wrong, it’s a super exciting time but it’s also complicated all the same. I hope this shorter article helps with any remaining your dilemma’s.

STRUCTURE

Using my data which all of you would have seen by now and with my aim not to create a flexible forward line allowing relatively easy coverage of price points and the opportunity to move to the form players as they appear. With this in mind I am looking to select no more than one premium’s (> 9.5 M), one or two mid-priced asset (9.0 to 6.0 mln) and possibly one bench fodder (5.5-4.5 mln)

As usual I created a short list based on extrapolating from last seasons points from minutes played and then factoring in rotation in project restart. I then factored in the fixtures and form after project restart.

9.5 Million & Above, (Choose 1)

9.0 – 6.5 Million (Choose 1 or 2)

6.0 – 4.5 Million (choose 1 or 2)

So again, given the aim to maintain flexibility and with my beady eye on value who am I going with and why?

The Premium’s

Looking at this slightly differently for the final article I will look at safe and explosive picks. You could obviously argue that talisman Vardy and for that matter, Kane, are both pretty safe options to start the season with, however; you have to stretch your budget by an extra 0.5 or 1.0 million above what in my opinion is the explosive Timo Werner.

Vardy (LEI) 10.0 M 25.4 PPMR and Kane (TOT) 10.5 M 22.0 PPMR both have favourable fixtures at the start of the season and with both on penalty duty neither are bad picks and I would not be surprised to see them on the score sheet in GW1.

Werner (CHE) with a predicted PPMR of 28.8 based on Bundesliga stats has an added string to his bow in that he offers a bigger assist threat than the competition above him and checking his metrics he looks to outperform them too faily comprehensively at 1:1 Bundesliga to EPL or with a 10% reduction factored in (which has been muted on twitter).

Source : Understat.com

Werner is therefore locked in to my team. Hallo Herr Verner an die Brüder Grimsby (thanks google translate!)

As per my previous arcticle I will be siding with either KDB or Sterling so for now Aguero is not in my thinking. Jesus for me is simply too wasteful so he is a NO at this point in time.

Firmino had a season to forget FPL wise and I genuinely see him improving but not to the level that Werner offers in this price bracket. I also do not want to rule out double Liverpool defence at the same time as a Salah/Mane pick.

9.0 to 6.5 Million

This is a tricky area to nail so again taking the safe or explosive options i will disect.

Firstly Safe, Well his to me puts four players in this Category;

Ings (SOU) 8.5M 29.1 PPMR. My son has named his FPL team ‘Lord of the Ings’ which was very apt for last season. However, is he going to maintain those incredible levels? My view is probably not and I expect him to regress slightly (even if he stays fit). However; Southampton fixtures are favourable and it is entirely possible I start with him at the time of writing but may ultimately sacrifice him going forwards or climb on to the Che Train!

Martial (MNU) 9.0M 26.2 PPMR. I was one of the few who didn’t own Bruno last season and covered him off with Tony. He seems to have the most amazing understanding with Rashford so I would not discount the double up at some stage this season and would likely find myself captaining him in a home banker. Blanking in GW1 he is firmly on my radar.

Jimenez (WOL) 8.5M 25.7 PPMR Another one of my mainstay’s last season who ticks along like a well tuned car season after season. Mr “one return” is super consistent but never tears trees up and for that reason not necessarily one of my favoured captain options. Wolves early fixtures are not great so I am not likely to start with him.

Wood (BUR) 6.5 M 21.2 PPMR, Another blanker in GW1, Wood is Mr dependable for Burnley providing he stays fit. He offers good value at 6.5 M to rival those around him. Watchlist.

And for the explosivity:

Antonio (WHU) 6.5M 27.2PPMR , He’s a monster isn’t he? but is he going to be pushed back out onto the wing and if he is, and looking at the data below you can see his numbers diminish significantly as a result.

There is also some disquiet in the hammer’s ranks and with tough fixtures coming up and Haller waiting in the wings at this time its a NO which is surprising given he was the first player I picked before the fixtures were released.

Credit Understat.com (Left as a Left Midfield, Right as a Forward)

And the rest, who may emerge?

Calvert Lewin (EVE) 7.0M 21.4 PPMR. Someone pass me the tablets quick! Am I including DCL in one of my articles? Well to put it simply I wouldn’t be if Everton hadn’t spent so well in the transfer window. I love the James, Allen and Doucoure signing’s which will add depth and creativity to their team. I genuinely think DCL will benefit and he’s a million cheaper than my nemesis Richarlison (that’s the only mention he gets). Everton‘s first fixture is against Spurs so I am tempted to watch and wait, but that means sacrificing a transfer. DCL is certainly on my shortlist.

Maupay (BRI) 6.5M 18.6 PPMR He is tipped to have a break out season by some in a side that will benefit from the signing of Lallana. Brighton however dont have an easy start by any means but he does look to be as nailed as you can be in Potter world.

Callum Wilson (NEW) 6.5M 15.5PPMR Callum” AKA the truth” Wilson by @hailcheaters. There is just something about him! I started with him last year and got off him too early and he’s already made it in one of my tinker’s. This is probably against my better judgement (and definitely against my metrics) but my thinking is that provided he starts against West Ham (who seem to be in dissaray) he could be a great option. He also can be moved from easily to other options like Mitrovic, Adams or DCL. Shortlist

6.0 and Below

Adams SOU 6.0 27.8 PPMR. Tops my metric at this price point and is pushing Ings for value and 2.5 Million cheaper. Correspondents suggest that he is fairly nailed and he looked excellent against Swansea in preseason. Post lock-down he outperformed Ings on XG but wasn’t as clinical.

Source Understat

I am not saying for a moment we can cover Ings with Adams but can we use that 2.5 million to great effect elsewhere, for example moving to a third playing forward. All aboard the Che Train.

Jordan Ayew CPA 6.0 21.0 PPMR Certainly falls into the safe camp, virtually ever present Ayew goes quietly going about his business and now possibly has the perfect foil in Eze. Palace’s fixtures are tough to start but from GW5 onwards he is a good option.

Iheanacho LEI 6.0 19.8 PPMR. Rotation kills his metric but if Vardy parties too hard and Leicester have Madison on the pitch, which makes a huge difference in my opinion then he is a fantastic option – not for now however.

Mitrovic FUL 6.0, *no data – Scored in midweek v Russia despite his heat-map suggesting he hardly left the center circle. My concern with him is that he wont get the chances but if Fulham do create one then its likely it will be Mitro on the end of it. Whether he kills a steward with the ball in row Z or hits the net is another question however. I can see the appeal but at time of writing I am really not that keen and may be made to pay as a result given his ownership.

Nketiah ARS 6.0, I mention him as an option as if his rotation risk diminishes then this propels him up the value from 13.1 PPMR (48% rotation) to 19.9 PPMR (20% Rotation), so put it simply if he starts he is a nice option especially given Arsenal’s first two fixtures.

Brewster, wherever he goes, he is a 4.5 million consideration and probably your first bench option, watch this space.

To conclude, and as it stands The Brothers Grimsby forward line only has one lock in, Werner really is a bit of a no brainer to me. As for the others I expect the 2nd slot to be filled by either Ings who is the safe option and does allow a quick jump to Martial, DCL or ‘the truth’ depending on news of starting lineup’s and the third spot will be Adams or 4.5 Bench fodder (if I select Ings)

Dare i go with this? Fetch me the wine.

Here’s to green arrows!

Chris Turner aka FPL MARINER

Published by fplmariner

Grimsby Town fan exiled in Singapore since 2017 Oil Trading by day, FPL and family (plus a good bottle of wine) by night.

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