Last season, apart from the 3 GW’s around my Wildcard and subsequent Bench Boost when I owned Dean Henderson, Nick Pope was present in my team so it is hardly surprising that I am again looking for that hidden gem at the 4.5 or 5.0 M value.
Using my data which all of you would have seen on Twitter by now and with my aim not to spend more than 9.0 Million (5.0/4.0 or 4.5/4.5), I’ve created a short list based on extrapolating last seasons points from minutes played and then factoring in rotation post the lockdown. This gave me the following list of options:
I also have a rule that the Goalkeeper shall be the cheapest playing option when considering the defence and should definitely be the first choice keeper. So we have four options that stand out for us to discuss:
McCarthy (SOU) – Started all but one match after the restart and now according to correspondents appears nailed between the sticks. I have therefore adjusted his rotation risk to zero giving him a PPMR of 31.4 which suggests a return over the season of 141 Points based on last years data.
Post lockdown Southampton only conceded 8 goals in 9 matches and were particularly strong away from home. This may be a sign of things to come given that they have also strengthened their defence signing left back Kyle Walker Peters from Spurs and Centre back Mohammed Salisu from Real Valladolid.
Southampton early season fixtures are somewhat favourable which suggests possibly enhanced PPM returns between GW 1 – 10 and i predict a good season for the Saints stopper with improved returns. SHORTLISTED
Ryan (BHA) – Was ever present in 2019/20 with no competition as such producing 135 points at 30.0 PPMR and making 117 saves in the process.
Clearly a great shot stopper, and he needs to be given how leaky their defence have been particularly during project restart. Brighton however now have Ben White back from Leeds and have been buoyed by Lewis Dunk signing a new long term contract which might provide for some upside to 2019/20.
Another factor in Ryan’s favour is that Brighton are also not very prolific going forwards so he may get more bonus points (14 BPS in 2019), if or when they keep a clean sheet. SHORTLISTED
Fabianski – (WHU) He doesn’t need any introduction to FPL players. 2019/20 Season was one to forget due to an injury with him only returning 83 Points (26.8 PPMR) given he was missing 38% of the season. However, he was present post lockdown and if we project his points over the season he would have scored 133 points.
David Moyes is not known for his expansive football and his teams are often hard to break down but to me however he is 0.5 Million a tad too expensive. REJECTED
Ramsdale (SHU) – Managed a very respectable 126 Points or 25.1 PPMR for a very poor Bournemouth side last season and has now moved to what was a very solid defensive unit at Sheffield United. It remains to be seen how much they will miss Dean Henderson but it would be fair to assume that there is some upside for Ramsdale over last season despite what some of the bookies say in that they will struggle (this also shows on Ben Crellin’s fixture difficulty sheet which i have used). A hint of his bonus point potential is also in his 2019/20 statistics where he achieved 13 BPS. I expect this season will be no different given the blades blunt attack (at time of writing) so i will estimate 150 points, or 30.0 PPMR. SHORTLISTED
So we now have our shortlist of Goalkeepers:
We also have the potential returns for 1,3,5 & 10 weeks and between GW2-5 and 6-10?
So on the basis of the PPM value, rotation and factoring in the fixture difficulty I predict basis value and projected returns that provided McCarthy (SOU) can hold his place in the team he should return 32.1 PPMR in the first 10 weeks which should provide for 38 points. Given the other factors he therefore shades it for me over Ryan (BHA) and a more expensive and adjusted Ramsdale (SHU).
As for my bench keeper, if I go for a 4.0 keeper I will not go for one who may start and lose his place, eg. Nyland (AVL) who despite being 18.7% owned has initial competition from Steer and then Heaton waiting in the wings. My thinking behind this is he will be potentially quite highly owned and people will jump off resulting in a rapid price drop. My choice would therefore be Peacock-Farrell of Burnley who is the No.2 behind Pope, currently 1.6% owned
BUT…. There’s always a but right?!
For the first time in three seasons and due to COVID19, rather than simply rotating (which I am not generally in favour of) and the spectre of possible last minute postponements I am tempted at the time of writing this to go with 2 x 4.5 GK’s and rotate between them. If this is the case, Ryan will definitely be my substitute keeper. This really would be a last minute decision based on the number of cases in the country and also whether I need another 0.5 million elsewhere.
And what do the Twitter Community think?
Well in short, three quarters of the twitter-sphere do not like the idea (or headache) of rotating (& selection of) keepers and by default given the question also see more value in hoping for the best with COVID issues rather than planning for the worst..
Interestingly less than 10 percent of the community are considering a 5.0 / 4.0 rotation strategy and only 2 percent are considering a 5.5 million + keeper, preferring to spread these funds into value picks across the pitch.
So as it stands, my draft is still set on the tried and tested 4.5/4.0 strategy but let’s see what the news headlines are like in a weeks time.
Next up, Defenders in a couple of days… stay tuned!
Chris Turner aka FPL MARINERFollow @FplMariner